Leyton Orient vs Plymouth Prediction

Alright, gather round the bar, lads. Tuesday night under the lights in East London and we've got a proper scrap on our hands. Leyton Orient are staring down the barrel in 18th, just a whisker above the drop zone with 33 points from 30 games, while Plymouth are sitting in 12th on 40 points, still eyeing up the playoff spots but needing to keep the pedal down.

Now, let's not beat around the bush. Orient couldn't hit a barn door lately. One win in their last ten, a measly six goals scored, and three of those came in a single afternoon against Reading back on January 17th. Since that 3-1 victory? Nothing. Nada. Zilch. They've gone three games without finding the net, including back-to-back 0-0 draws against Mansfield and Stockport County. While that might suggest they've tightened the screws at the back – and to be fair, they've stopped the bleeding after shipping three to Doncaster and Luton – when you're creating nowt going forward, you're asking for trouble against a side like Plymouth.

The Pilgrims, on the other hand, are the form side here. Five wins in their last ten, banging in 18 goals at an average of 1.8 per game, and absolutely ruthless on the road. They've won 60% of their last five away days, averaging 2.2 goals per game on their travels. They put four past Blackpool last Saturday without breaking a sweat, and that followed a decent run where they picked up points at Peterborough and saw off Luton at home.

The head-to-head makes grim reading for the O's too. Plymouth have won five of the last eight meetings, including the reverse fixture 1-0 back in December. Orient's home record against the Pilgrims? Won one, lost two, with just three goals scored in those three games.

I know what you're thinking. "But Mr Simple, Orient have kept two clean sheets on the bounce!" Fair play, but they've also failed to score in six of their last ten matches. Against a Plymouth side that's finding the net for fun – 16.4 shots per game away from home with 5.4 on target – I can't see past an away win here.

The bookies have this tight at 2.55 for the home win and 2.62 for the away, which is criminal if you ask me. Given Plymouth's superior form, their attacking prowess on the road, and Orient's struggles in front of goal, the visitors should be shorter. The value's with Plymouth.

Key Points:

• Leyton Orient have scored just 6 goals in their last 10 games (0.6 per game) and have drawn 0-0 in their last two matches

• Plymouth have won 60% of their last 5 away games, scoring 2.2 goals per game on the road

• Plymouth won the reverse fixture 1-0 in December and lead the head-to-head record 5-3

• Orient are winless in 9 of their last 10 matches (1 win, 3 draws, 6 losses)

• Plymouth beat Blackpool 4-0 last time out, showing their attacking quality against struggling sides

Summary:

Plymouth look the business here. Orient's attack is blunter than a butter knife, and while they've stopped leaking goals lately, Plymouth's firepower – averaging over two goals away from home – should be too much for a side that's forgotten where the net is. Back the away win at 2.62.