Preview
Mr SimpleRight, let's have a chat about this one. Lincoln versus West Ham on 14 October, and if you're looking for a game where the scoreboard keeps ticking, this is your match.
West Ham are the ones with the fire in them. Over their last 10 games across all grounds, they've scored 2.7 per game and gone over 2.5 in 8 of those 10. More importantly, they haven't failed to score in a single one of those 10. Their last five has been 4 out of 5 over 2.5, and they've racked up 14 goals in that stretch. The 6-0 thrashing of Wrexham four weeks ago might be the outlier, but the 3-2 win at Bolton and the 2-2 at Millwall show they've got the output even when it's not a blowout.
Lincoln, on the other hand, have been in a bit of a muddle. They've lost their last two — a 0-3 at Sheffield United just four days before kickoff and a 1-2 at home to Swansea three weeks back. In those two games they've managed one goal and conceded five. Over their last five, they've scored just three and conceded nine. That's 0.6 a game on the attack, and it's not a pretty picture for a side about to face a team that's scoring at nearly three a game.
Now, Lincoln's home record is their saving grace. Over 20 home games, they've won 12, drawn 4 and lost 4, scoring 2.05 per game and conceding just 1.1. That's a solid base, and 13 of those 20 home games have gone over 2.5. So the ground does produce goals, and the numbers say this fixture is likely to follow that pattern.
The head-to-head is thin — just one meeting, back in September 2023 in the League Cup, when West Ham won 1-0 at Lincoln's ground. Three years ago, so it's historical and doesn't really tell us much about what's coming on 14 October. We've got to lean on current form and the home/away records instead.
The counter-argument is fair enough. West Ham have drawn their last two — 1-1 at home to QPR and 2-2 at Millwall — and their away record over 20 games is a mixed bag of 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses. Lincoln's home form over 20 games is genuinely strong, and a side that's won 12 of 20 at home isn't going to roll over just because they've had a rough run of form. Plus, Lincoln's xG against in their last four games with data was 1.21 per game, which suggests their defence isn't as leaky as the results might imply.
But here's the thing — when you combine West Ham's 2.7 goals per game with Lincoln's home scoring of 2.05, you're looking at a game where the total crosses 2.5 more often than not. West Ham's last five games have seen 4 out of 5 go over 2.5, and their last 10 has been 8 out of 10. Lincoln's home record backs that up at 13 out of 20. The numbers all point the same way, and I can't see a low-scoring affair here.
Key Points:
- West Ham have scored in all of their last 10 games, averaging 2.7 per game
- Lincoln have lost their last two, scoring just 1 goal and conceding 5
- 13 of Lincoln's last 20 home games went over 2.5 goals
- West Ham's last 5 games: 4 out of 5 over 2.5
- The head-to-head is a single 2023 meeting — no recent history to lean on
My pick: Over 2.5 goals at 1.67.