Livingston vs Dundee Prediction

Alright folks, pull up a stool. We've got a proper six-pointer at the bottom of the Scottish Premiership this weekend. Livingston, rock bottom with just one win all season, host a Dundee side who are only four points above them. It's the kind of game that gets your nerves jangling, and let's be honest, it might not be a classic for the neutrals.

First, let's look at the form. And I use the term 'form' loosely. Livingston haven't won in their last ten games. Not one. They've picked up three draws, but the rest have been losses. At home, it's not much prettier: no wins in their last four at the Tony Macaroni Arena, with three defeats and a draw. They're conceding nearly two goals a game on average, but they have managed to score in seven of those last ten outings. They've drawn with the likes of Hibernian and Falkirk recently, so they're not getting rolled over every week.

Then you've got Dundee. Oh, Dundee. On the road, they're an absolute disaster. Six away games, six defeats. One goal scored in those six matches. Let me say that again: one goal. They've been turned over 4-0 by Hearts, 4-0 by Aberdeen, and 2-0 by Hibernian on their travels. Their only victories this season came at home, including that famous win over Celtic. But take them away from Dens Park and they forget how to score.

So, what does that mean for Saturday? Well, the head-to-head says Dundee have the edge, winning five of the nine meetings, including a 3-2 thriller earlier this season. But that was at home. At Livingston, it's a bit more even historically.

The bookies have Livingston as favourites at 1.85. That tells you everything about Dundee's away form. But backing a team that hasn't won in ten games? That takes a stronger stomach than mine. The value, for me, lies elsewhere.

Look at the Both Teams to Score market. 'Yes' is priced at 1.80. Now, Livingston's games have seen both teams score 70% of the time recently. But Dundee's games? Only 30%. And when you drill into Dundee's away games, they've failed to score in five of their last six trips. I just can't see them suddenly finding their shooting boots in a nervy relegation scrap.

Livingston might score – they average a goal a game at home. But Dundee's attack on the road is non-existent. This has 1-0 or 0-0 written all over it.

Key Points:

This is a massive relegation battle between the bottom two sides.

Livingston are winless in ten but have been more competitive at home.

Dundee have lost all six of their recent away games, scoring just once.

The last meeting was a 3-2 Dundee win, but that was at their place.

• Dundee's shocking away scoring record makes 'Both Teams to Score' a risky bet.

The Simple Tip:

The maths and the recent facts point to one thing: Dundee are unlikely to score. Therefore, I'm backing Both Teams To Score - NO at 1.95. It's not the most glamorous bet, but in a scrap like this, goals are often scarce, especially for the travelling side. Let's bank on a tense, low-scoring affair.