Preview
Umery UnderdogGrosseto travel to Livorno on 16 October carrying a strong away record in Serie C Girone B. Over their last 20 away games, the Tuscan side have won 15, drawn 2 and lost just 3, averaging 2.35 points per game. Their defensive record on the road is remarkable: they concede just 0.55 goals per game away and have kept 12 clean sheets in those 20 fixtures. In their last five matches, Grosseto have won three, drawn one and lost one, scoring 12 goals at a rate of 2.4 per game. The 3–2 victory at Vis Pesaro on 10 October and the 4–0 demolition of Pineto on 26 September show a side that is confident and scoring freely on the road.
Livorno, by contrast, arrive with a more mixed recent record. Their last five matches produced two wins, two draws and a loss, at 1.6 points per game. The 0–1 defeat to Pescara at home on 3 October was a setback, and the 1–1 draws at Forli and Guidonia Montecelio 1937 show a side that struggles to close out games. Over their last 10 matches, Livorno have managed 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses, scoring just 1.1 goals per game.
The counter-argument is Livorno's home record, which is respectable: 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in 20 home games, with 1.8 goals scored per game. Their last two home fixtures both ended 3–2, against Pianese and Vado, showing they can find the goals at home. The head-to-head is entirely historical — the most recent meeting was a 0–0 draw at Grosseto's ground on 26 January 2025, and before that Livorno won 5–2 and 3–0 at home two years ago. With no meetings within the last 12 months, that record offers little guidance for this fixture.
The market prices Livorno at 44.84% and Grosseto at 31.75%. My reading of the form and the away numbers puts Grosseto's chance closer to 34%, which gives the underdog a genuine edge at 3.15.
Key Points:
- Grosseto have won 15 of their last 20 away games, conceding just 0.55 per game and keeping 12 clean sheets
- Livorno's last five matches: 2W 2D 1L, including a 0–1 home loss to Pescara on 3 October
- The head-to-head is entirely historical, with no meetings within 12 months of kickoff
- Grosseto scored 12 goals in their last five matches at 2.4 per game
- Livorno's home record (12W in 20) is solid but their recent form is below that level
I'm backing the little puppies — Grosseto away win at 3.15. 🐾