Ljungskile SK vs IK brage Prediction

The market is pricing Ljungskile SK as the favourite at home against IK brage, but the numbers tell a different story when you dig into the recent form.

Ljungskile SK have been leaky. In their last five matches they've conceded nine goals and kept zero clean sheets. Their last home game was a 0–2 defeat to Falkenbergs FF on 13 September, and before that they lost 2–3 away at GIF Sundsvall on 20 September. The only win in that stretch came against Norrby IF at home on 9 September. Their record over the last five is 1W 2D 2L, with 1.0 points per game and 1.8 goals conceded per game.

IK brage, by contrast, have been tighter. Over their last five matches they've conceded just six goals, scored seven, and their record is 1W 3D 1L — 1.2 points per game. Their most recent outing was a 2–0 home win over Helsingborg on 11 October, and they've failed to score in only zero of those five. The one loss came at Varbergs BoIS FC on 19 September, a 2–3 defeat. Their current run is a win, and the defensive numbers in that run are the most telling.

The head-to-head is thin. The only meeting within the last 12 months was a 2–2 draw at IK brage's ground on 9 June 2026. The two older meetings, from 2020, are historical record and don't carry much weight for current form. At Ljungskile SK's ground there have been no recent meetings; the only one on record is a 1–3 loss to IK brage back in 2020. With just one recent meeting, the head-to-head is dated and I'm leaning on current form and venue records instead.

The venue records do favour Ljungskile SK on paper. Over 20 home games they've won 12, drawn 1 and lost 7, scoring 1.85 per game and conceding 1.3. IK brage's away record over 20 games is 7W 3D 10L, scoring 1.3 per game and conceding 1.75. That's a solid home record for Ljungskile, and it's the main reason the market has them at 49.50% implied probability.

But the recent form tells a different tale. Ljungskile's home record is built over a long stretch, while their last five games show a team that's struggling to hold a lead and leaking goals at an alarming rate. IK brage's away record is weaker on aggregate, but their recent defensive solidity — six conceded in five games — and the fact that they've scored in every one of those five suggests they're in a different gear than the 20-game average implies. The matchup table shows Ljungskile scoring 1.85 per game at home against IK brage's 1.75 conceded per game away, which keeps the door open for Ljungskile to find the net, but the defensive numbers on both sides point toward a tight, low-scoring contest where the better recent form should prevail.

The counter-argument is straightforward: Ljungskile's home record is genuinely strong. Twelve wins in 20 home games, 1.85 goals per game, and only 1.3 conceded. That's a record that doesn't disappear just because the last five games have been rough. And the head-to-head, while limited, has never produced an away win at Ljungskile's ground in the recent era. The 2–2 draw in June showed both teams can score, and Ljungskile's home attack is the better one on the numbers.

Key Points:

• Ljungskile SK have conceded 9 goals in their last 5 matches and kept 0 clean sheets

• IK brage have conceded only 6 in their last 5 and scored in all 5

• The only recent head-to-head meeting (9 June 2026) ended 2–2

• Ljungskile's 20-game home record: 12W 1D 7L, 1.85 scored, 1.3 conceded

• IK brage's 20-game away record: 7W 3D 10L, 1.3 scored, 1.75 conceded

The value is on IK brage to win at 3.41. The market's 29.33% implied probability undersells what the recent form and defensive numbers suggest. I rate IK brage's chance of winning at around 35%, which puts this at a genuine value price for the long-term profit hunter.