Llantwit Major vs Caerau (Ely) Prediction

Goeiedaag, voetbalfans! Welcome to another exciting FAW Championship showdown, and today we've got ourselves a proper cracker between Llantwit Major and Caerau (Ely) at Llantwit's home ground.

Let's cut through the noise and talk facts, because what do you mean no meat? We're here for the goals, the wins, and the proper football action!

Current Form Analysis

Caerau (Ely) arrive in sensational form, boasting a 60% win rate over their last 10 games with a scorching 1.90 points per game average. Their attacking output is simply on another level - 28 goals in 10 games, averaging 2.80 goals per game. That's proper goalscoring form, my friend!

Meanwhile, Llantwit Major have been decent but not quite as clinical. They sit on 50% win rate with 1.60 points per game, scoring 21 goals (2.10 per game) but also conceding 17 (1.70 per game). Their defence has been leaky, with just one clean sheet in 10 games - that's a 10% clean sheet rate, which is concerning.

The Numbers Don't Lie

Caerau (Ely)'s defensive solidity stands out. They've kept 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40% rate) and conceded just 13 goals (1.30 per game). Compare that to Llantwit's defensive woes and you start to see the picture forming.

Home and Away Splits

Here's where it gets interesting. Caerau (Ely) are equally dangerous away from home with a 60% away win rate and averaging 3.0 goals per game on the road. Llantwit Major, meanwhile, manage just a 50% home win rate with 2.0 goals scored per game at home.

Head-to-Head History

The H2H record is perfectly balanced - 6 meetings, 2 wins each, 2 draws. Goals have been plentiful in these encounters too, with 4 of 6 matches seeing over 2.5 goals. The last meeting ended 0-0 back in September 2025, but before that, we've seen some proper goal festivals including a 4-2 and 1-4 scoreline.

The Verdict

Caerau (Ely) are simply in better form across the board - better goals scored, better goals conceded, better points per game, and better clean sheet percentage. Their away form is particularly impressive, and they've shown they can score big goals on the road (5 goals at Baglan Dragons, 4 at Aberystwyth Town).

The odds of 1.65 for the away win represent good value here. Caerau (Ely) look like the stronger side in every metric that matters.

Key Points:

• Caerau (Ely) averaging 2.80 goals per game vs Llantwit's 2.10

• Caerau (Ely) 40% clean sheet rate vs Llantwit's 10%

• Caerau (Ely) 60% away win rate with 3.0 goals per game away

• Llantwit Major conceding 1.70 goals per game overall

• H2H split evenly but Caerau (Ely) in superior current form

Recommended Bet: AWAY WIN - Caerau (Ely)

The visitors are in red-hot form, scoring freely and defending well. At 1.65, the odds offer decent value for what looks like a 70% probability outcome. Let's get those wins! ⚽️