Llanuwchllyn vs Penrhyncoch Prediction

Right, so we've got Llanuwchllyn hosting Penrhyncoch at home on 10 October, and if I'm being honest, this one's got a bit of a one-sided flavour to it.

Penrhyncoch are in a bit of a mess, mate. Five games, five losses, and they've managed just one goal in the lot. Four of those five, they've gone the whole 90 without finding the net. They've conceded 14 in that stretch, and their away record over the last 20 games tells the same story – 13 losses, 9 of those 20 games ended with them failing to score. In their last 10 across all grounds, they've won zero, drawn one, and lost nine. That's not a team having a rough patch; that's a team having a rough stretch, plain and simple.

Now, Llanuwchllyn aren't exactly flying either. Their last two games have been losses – 0-1 at Guilsfield and 2-5 at home to Caersws, where they got a man sent off in the 81st minute. But look at the home record over 10 games: 4 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses, and they've scored 1.6 a game at home. They've kept 4 clean sheets in those 10 and failed to score in only 3. When they're on their day at home, they've been scoring – 4-0 to Holyhead Hotspur and 2-0 to Gresford Athletic just a few weeks back.

The head-to-head's a blank – no meetings on record – so we're going on current form and the venue numbers. And those numbers say Penrhyncoch are the team most likely to go home without a goal. They've scored in just 1 of their last 5, and their away record shows they've failed to score in 9 of 20. Llanuwchllyn at home have had 6 of their last 10 home games end with at least one side not scoring.

The counter-argument? Well, Llanuwchllyn's last two games were defeats, and their home record does include 5 losses in 10. They're not a team that's been dominant. And Penrhyncoch did manage a goal in that 1-5 loss to Bangor City, so they're not completely toothless. But 0.2 goals a game is 0.2 goals a game, and that's a very hard number to bounce back from in a single afternoon.

Key Points:

• Penrhyncoch have lost their last 5, scoring just 1 goal and failing to score in 4 of them

• Llanuwchllyn's home record: 4W 1D 5L in 10, scoring 1.6 per game

• Penrhyncoch's away record: 4W 3D 13L in 20, failing to score in 9 of 20

• No head-to-head meetings on record, so current form and venue records carry the weight

• Llanuwchllyn's last 2 games were losses, but the home numbers still favour them

The market's pricing both teams to score at 1.5, implying about 67% chance. My read on this is that Penrhyncoch are the side most likely to go home without a goal, and I'd put the chance of at least one team failing to score at around 52%. That's a decent chunk above the market's view, and the price of 2.36 for both teams not to score gives us some value. My tip: both teams not to score.