Londrina vs Cuiaba Prediction

The numbers don't lie, and in this one they're telling a very specific story. Cuiaba have entered the last five matches with a pattern so consistent it borders on a script: in every single game, at least one side failed to score. The 0-1 loss to Avai at home, the 0-0 draw at Vila Nova, the 2-0 win over Ponte Preta, the 0-3 defeat at CRB, and the 3-0 hammering of Nautico Recife — five games, five blanks. That's not a coincidence; that's a team whose away record over 20 games shows 13 of 20 meetings ending with at least one team scoreless.

Londrina's home numbers tell a complementary tale. Across 20 home games, 12 of them have been BTTS No. Their last five matches at all venues show them scoring just 0.8 per game and conceding 2.0, with zero clean sheets. They've failed to score in two of those five, and the two home defeats — 0-2 to Criciuma and 1-2 to Fortaleza — underline how thin their attacking output has been.

The counter-argument is straightforward: Londrina did find the net in three of their last five, and the one recent head-to-head meeting on 25 June at Cuiaba's ground finished 2-2. But that fixture is three months old, and the head-to-head beyond it stretches back to 2019 — seven years of history that dilute any current-form reading. The recent meeting was a draw, not a goal-fest, and the overall pattern across Cuiaba's last five is overwhelming.

The under 2.5 angle adds a layer of support: Cuiaba's away games have gone under 2.5 in 14 of 20, and their last five at all venues have been under in three of five. Londrina's home record is split 10-10 on the over/under line, which doesn't add much, but it doesn't contradict the low-scoring picture either.

The market prices both teams not to score at 1.85, implying a 54.05% chance. My read, built on Cuiaba's five-game blank-sheet record, their 13/20 away figure, and Londrina's 12/20 home record, puts the true probability closer to 62%. That's a genuine edge — the kind of mispricing that pays off over time if you're disciplined enough to take it.

Key Points:

• Cuiaba have had BTTS No in all five of their last matches at every venue

• Cuiaba's away record: 13 of 20 games ended with at least one team scoreless

• Londrina's home record: 12 of 20 games were BTTS No

• The only recent head-to-head (25 June 2026) was a 2-2 draw; older meetings are historical

• Under 2.5 has hit in 14 of Cuiaba's 20 away games and 3 of their last 5

Verdict: Both teams not to score at 1.85.