Preview
Mr SimpleLos Angeles Galaxy host Portland Timbers on 15 October in Major League Soccer, and if you've got a spare five minutes to look at the numbers, the picture's pretty clear.
Start with the home record. The Galaxy have won 8 of their last 20 home games, drawn 6 and lost 6, scoring 1.35 per game and conceding just 1.2. They've kept 7 clean sheets in those 20 home fixtures. Now flip it around and look at Portland's away record over 20 games: 3 wins, 3 draws and 14 losses. They've conceded 2.25 per game away and haven't kept a single clean sheet in 20 trips. That's a gap that's hard to look past.
Portland's recent form is grim, mate. Five games without a win — two draws and three losses — and in that stretch they've scored 7 and conceded 11. The 3-3 draw at Sporting Kansas City four days ago showed they can still find goals, but the 0-1 loss at home to Atlanta United and the 1-2 defeat at FC Dallas before that tell you this team's struggling to find a rhythm.
The Galaxy, for their part, have won two of their last five — a 3-2 home win over Colorado Rapids and a 3-2 away win at Minnesota United — before that 6-2 hammering at St. Louis City four days ago. That last result's a concern, sure, but it was on the road, and the home numbers suggest a different Galaxy.
The head-to-head at this venue in the last 12 months is simple: one meeting, and the Galaxy won 1-0 in January. The other recent meeting was a 1-1 draw at Portland's ground in March. Older meetings go back further and include some big scores both ways, but those are historical and don't carry the same weight as what's been happening recently.
The counter-argument is that the Galaxy's 6-2 loss shows their defence can be stretched, and Portland's 3-3 draw proves they can score. Both teams' last five games have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 matches, so this could be a goal-fest. But the structural advantage of a home side that's won 8 of 20 home games against an away side that's won just 3 of 20 away games is hard to overcome.
Key Points:
- LA Galaxy: 8W 6D 6L at home in 20 games, 1.35 scored, 1.2 conceded per game
- Portland Timbers: 3W 3D 14L away in 20 games, 2.25 conceded per game, 0 clean sheets
- Portland are winless in their last five matches (0W 2D 3L)
- H2H at this venue in the last 12 months: LA Galaxy won 1-0
- Both teams' last five games have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5
The Galaxy's home solidity against Portland's away struggles gives me a solid edge. I'm going with the home win.