Lyon vs Nice Prediction

Right, so we've got Lyon hosting Nice on 18 October, and if you've been following the numbers, this one's got a pretty clear shape to it.

Lyon at home are in a different world to Nice on the road. Over their last 20 home games, Lyon have won 13, drawn 3 and lost 4, scoring 2.3 goals a game. That's a side that comes to work at their ground and gets the job done. Nice, on the other hand, have won just 3 of their last 20 away games, drawn 7 and lost 10, and they've failed to score in 11 of those 20. That's a team that struggles to find the back of the net when they're travelling.

The head-to-head at this venue tells a similar story. Lyon beat Nice 2–0 back in February, and going further back, they've won every meeting at their ground — 4–1, 1–0, and that 2–0. Nice did grab a 3–2 win at their own end in October last year, but that's the reverse fixture and a different proposition entirely.

Lyon's recent form is solid. Three wins, a draw and a loss in their last five, with 10 goals scored and just 5 conceded. They've been scoring 2 a game and keeping it tight. The 3–2 win over Crystal Palace three days ago showed they've got the edge and the nerve to see it out. Their current run is a win, and they've kept it to a single defeat in that stretch.

Nice have won their last two — 2–1 over Strasbourg and 2–1 over Lille — but both were at home. On the road, their record is grim. They lost 0–3 to Paris FC away in August and 0–1 to Auxerre in September. Their away scoring sits at 0.7 a game over 20 matches, which is barely enough to keep a foot in the door.

Now, the counter-argument. Nice have shown they can score when they're on a roll — they've won their last two and their xG numbers suggest they're creating chances. Lyon did drop points to Lens away and draw 0–0 at Paris FC, so they're not untouchable. And the recent head-to-head is only two meetings, so it's a small number of games to go on. But the weight of the evidence — the home record, the away record, the head-to-head at this venue — all points the same way. Lyon are the stronger side here, and the numbers back it up.

Key Points:

• Lyon have won 13 of their last 20 home games, scoring 2.3 per game

• Nice have won only 3 of their last 20 away games and failed to score in 11 of them

• Lyon beat Nice 2–0 at this venue in February; they've won every meeting here

• Lyon's last five: 3W 1D 1L, 10 scored, 5 conceded

• Nice's away scoring averages 0.7 per game over 20 matches

My verdict: Lyon home win at 1.71.