Malaga vs Almeria Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Segunda División clash. Malaga, sitting 11th, welcome high-flying Almeria, who are third and dreaming of promotion. On paper, it's a bit of a mismatch, but football's not played on paper, is it? Let's get stuck in.

Malaga are a funny old side at the moment. At home, they're like a box of fireworks – loads of bang but not much security. They've not lost in their last four at their place (two wins, two draws), and they're banging in the goals for fun, averaging 2.5 per game on home turf. Just look at their recent results: a 4-1 thumping of FC Andorra and a 3-2 win over Mirandes. But here's the rub – they haven't kept a single clean sheet in their last ten games. Not one. Their defence has more holes than a sieve. Even in their decent 1-1 draw with Zaragoza, they conceded. They're great going forward, but you'd back them to concede against their nan's walking football team.

Now, Almeria are the real deal. They're third for a reason, with six wins from their last ten. They're tight at the back, keeping five clean sheets in that run, and they score plenty too. But they've hit a tiny wobble, losing two of their last three – including a surprise 1-2 defeat at home to Burgos. Their away form is a classic 'go for it' style: win 60% of the time, lose 40%, and no draws. They average a whopping 2.0 goals per game on the road, but they do concede more (1.2) than at home. So when they travel, it's often entertaining.

The head-to-head makes for grim reading if you're a Malaga fan. In the last five meetings at Malaga's ground, they've not won once – it's two draws and three losses to Almeria. The visitors just seem to have their number. The last meeting was a 2-1 win for Almeria back in July.

So, what's gonna happen? Malaga will attack at home, they always do. They'll probably score – they've done so in nine of their last ten. Almeria will fancy their chances against that leaky back line and have the firepower to score themselves. With Almeria's solidity slightly reduced on their travels, this has all the makings of a proper, end-to-end game where both nets bulge.

Key Points:

Malaga are unbeaten in four at home but have kept zero clean sheets in ten games.

Almeria have won 60% of their away games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per game on the road.

In head-to-head matches at Malaga, the hosts have never won in the data provided (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses).

Malaga's home games average 4.0 total goals; Almeria's away games average 3.2.

• Both teams have scored in 90% of Malaga's last ten matches.

The Simple Verdict: This one screams goals at both ends. Malaga's attack at home meets Almeria's potent away form, and neither defence is likely to come out spotless. The value, for me, lies in backing both teams to find the net.