Mallorca vs Deportivo Alavés Prediction

Right then, mates! Let's talk about this La Liga scrap at Son Moix. Mallorca are rooted to the bottom with just two points from five games – not exactly setting the world alight, are they? But hold up, they've shown some backbone at home. That 1-1 draw with Atlético Madrid? Proper graft. Same story against Celta. Still, one win in ten tells you why they're 19th.

Now Alavés? Sitting pretty in 10th with seven points. Their party trick? Making life miserable for hosts. Four clean sheets in ten games, and away they're tighter than a drum – conceding just 0.40 per game on the road. Their last four away days? All finished with under 2.5 goals. Every. Single. One.

History says Mallorca don't lose at home to Alavés (unbeaten in five), but four of those were snoozefests with under 2.5 goals. Last meeting? You guessed it: 1-1.

So what's the play? Mallorca can't buy a win, Alavés can't score on the road (0.40 goals/game), and both love a low-stakes tango. The maths screams value: 75% chance of under 2.5 goals at 1.44 odds is proper punters' arithmetic.

Key Points:

• Mallorca: Winless in 5, but home draws vs Atlético & Celta show fight

• Alavés: 4 clean sheets in 10 games; conceded 0.40/game away

• H2H: Mallorca unbeaten at home vs Alavés (2W, 3D)

• Alavés' last 4 away: ALL under 2.5 goals

• Last meeting: 1-1 draw (under 2.5)

This won't be a goal gluttony. Back under 2.5 goals – it's the smart money in a game where defences rule the roost.