Mallorca vs Real Sociedad Prediction

Alright, mate, grab a pint and let's have a butcher's at this Saturday evening scrap down in Palma. Mallorca are hosting Real Sociedad, and on paper, this looks like a right mismatch if you ask me.

The home side are in all sorts of bother, sitting 18th in the table with just 24 points from 25 games. They've only managed two wins in their last ten outings, and their recent form makes for grim reading if you're a Mallorca fan. They got turned over 2-0 by Celta Vigo last weekend – and Celta are no mugs, sitting sixth with 1.8 points per game recently – lost 1-2 to Real Betis at home the week before, and took a proper hiding off Barcelona (3-0) at the start of the month. Sure, they managed a cracking 4-1 win against Sevilla and a 3-2 thriller against Athletic Club in January, but those are looking like blips rather than trends when you're conceding nearly two goals a game and sitting just one point above the drop zone.

Now, flip the coin and look at Real Sociedad. These lads are 10th in the table and playing some lovely stuff. Six wins from their last ten games tells you everything you need to know about their momentum. They absolutely dismantled Barcelona 2-1 away from home in January – and that's the Barcelona that's top of the league with 2.7 points per game, mind – and followed it up with a 3-1 win against a Celta Vigo side that's been flying. Even their blip, a 4-1 loss to Real Madrid, came against the second-best side in the country. The only slight worry is that 3-3 draw against bottom-of-the-table Oviedo last time out, which shows they can switch off at the back, but their away record is solid with 60% wins on the road.

Looking at the head-to-head, Sociedad have the edge with four wins to Mallorca's two in the last nine meetings, including a 1-0 victory when they met back in September. Historically these games have been tight, low-scoring affairs, but given Mallorca's defensive frailties and Sociedad's attacking prowess – they're banging in over two goals a game recently – I'm expecting the visitors to have too much quality for a side that's leaking 1.8 goals per match.

The bookies have Real Sociedad at 2.60 to win, which looks a decent price to me. When you've got one side fighting for their lives but shipping goals against top-half opposition, and another side in good nick with a habit of finding the net, the maths points to an away win. Mallorca's home advantage isn't worth much when you're only winning 40% at your own gaff and conceding for fun.

Key Points:

• Mallorca have lost 6 of their last 10 games, conceding 18 goals in that run (1.80 per game)

• Real Sociedad have won 6 of their last 10, including a 2-1 victory away at league leaders Barcelona

• Real Sociedad boast a 60% win rate in their last 5 away games, scoring 1.60 per game on the road

• Head-to-head record favors Real Sociedad (4 wins vs 2 in last 9 meetings)

• Mallorca are 18th in La Liga, just one point above the relegation playoff spot

The Verdict:

This one's straightforward, simple as that. Real Sociedad are the form side by a country mile, and while Mallorca will be desperate, desperation doesn't stop goals. At 2.60, the away win represents solid value against a side that's struggling to keep the ball out of their net. Have a nibble on Sociedad to take the three points back to San Sebastián.