Manchester City vs Everton Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Manchester City welcome Everton to their patch, and on paper, this looks about as straightforward as they come. City are sitting pretty in 5th with 13 points, while Everton aren't doing too badly in 8th on 11 points, but there's a world of difference between these two when you dig into the numbers.

City's home form is proper tasty - they're winning 75% of their home games and rattling in 2.5 goals per match on their own turf. They've had some decent results lately too, stuffing Burnley 5-1 and putting three past Man United without reply. Even when they dropped points against Arsenal, it was only a 1-1 draw against a team flying high at the top of the table.

Everton, on the other hand, look like a different beast away from home. They're losing a whopping 75% of their away matches and shipping 1.75 goals per game on their travels. They did beat Crystal Palace 2-1 recently, but then got turned over 2-0 by Wolves in the cup - and Wolves are rock bottom of the league! That tells you all you need to know about their consistency on the road.

Now here's the killer stat - the head-to-head record. City have absolutely dominated this fixture over the last nine meetings: 7 wins, 2 draws, and not a single loss for Everton. City have kept clean sheets in six of those nine matches too. Everton just don't seem to have an answer when they face City, whether home or away.

Looking at the goal numbers, City are averaging 2.1 goals per game this season while Everton are only managing 1.1. At the back, City are tighter too, conceding just 0.8 per game compared to Everton's 1.0. When you factor in that City score 2.5 at home and Everton let in 1.75 away, you can see where this is heading.

The bookies have City at 1.38 for the win, which might not set the world on fire, but sometimes the best bets are the obvious ones. With City's home dominance, Everton's travel sickness, and that one-sided head-to-head record, this looks like a solid piece of business.