Manchester United vs Aston Villa Prediction

Here we go then, a massive Sunday afternoon clash as Manchester United welcome Aston Villa, with both sides sitting pretty on 51 points in third and fourth spot. But don't let the league table fool you – these two teams are heading in opposite directions faster than a London bus in rush hour!

United have been absolutely cooking at home lately, winning eight out of their last ten on their own patch. We're talking about a side that's just put Arsenal to the sword 3-2 and brushed Manchester City aside 2-0 without breaking much of a sweat. They're banging in two goals a game on average at home and only letting in one, which is the kind of form that wins you silverware. Even that narrow 2-1 defeat at Newcastle last time out can't dampen the spirits when you look at the fortress they've built at home.

Now, cast your eyes over to Aston Villa and it's a different picture entirely. The Villans have been struggling to get going, managing just three wins from their last ten outings. They got a proper hiding off Chelsea last time out, losing 4-1 at home, and before that they were turned over 2-0 by Wolves. Away from home, it's even bleaker – they've only won one of their last four on the road and are averaging a measly 0.75 goals per game. When you're creating chances like that, you're asking for trouble.

The head-to-head makes for grim reading if you're a Villa fan too. United have won four out of five recent home meetings against them – that's an 80% win rate. The last time these two met back in December, United came away with a 2-1 victory, and there's nothing in the current form to suggest that won't happen again.

Key Points:

• Manchester United have won 80% of their last 5 home games, scoring 2.00 goals per game while conceding just 1.00

• Aston Villa have won only 25% of their last 4 away games, averaging just 0.75 goals scored per game on the road

• United hold an 80% win rate against Villa in home fixtures based on the last 9 meetings

• Villa have lost 4 of their last 10 matches, including heavy defeats to Chelsea (4-1) and Wolves (2-0)

Summary: The maths is simple here, mate. United are strong at home, Villa are struggling away, and the 1.73 on a home win represents decent value for a team that's beaten the likes of Arsenal and City recently. Back Manchester United to take the three points.