Manchester United vs Tottenham Prediction

Right, so we've got Manchester United at home to Tottenham on 10 October, and if you've been following the form books, this one's got a bit of a story to tell.

Manchester United at home are a different animal. Over the last 20 home games, they've won 12, drawn 2 and lost 6, scoring 2.15 a game. That's a solid record, and when you look at the head-to-head at this ground within the last 12 months, United beat Spurs 2–0 back in February. The reverse fixture at Tottenham's end was a 2–2 draw, so the balance tips United's way at this venue.

Now, United's own recent form isn't exactly sparkling. They've managed 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last five, including a 2–3 loss to Brighton at home and a 0–1 defeat to City. But that 4–0 Champions League win over Sabah FA showed they've got the firepower when it matters, and the home record over 20 games tells you they're a tough nut to crack at this end.

Tottenham, though, are in a bit of a mess. Zero wins in their last five. They lost 2–3 to Villa at home, lost 1–3 to Liverpool away, and the two 0–0 draws against Everton and Nottingham Forest showed they're struggling to find the front foot. In fact, they've failed to score in three of those five games, and their xG for in the two games where we have data is just 0.76 a game. That's not a lot of chance creation. On top of that, their away record over 20 games is 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses, scoring just 1.1 a game.

The counter-argument? Well, United have only failed to score in one of their last five, and their xG for is 2.36 a game. They're creating plenty. And the head-to-head at this ground in February was a 2–0 United win, which means at least one team kept a clean sheet. The older meetings at Tottenham's end saw Spurs win three in a row, but those are historical and don't really tell you what's happening now.

The key question is whether Tottenham can find a goal. They've been scoreless in three of five, their away scoring is 1.1 a game, and the xG numbers suggest they're not creating much. United at home have had at least one team scoreless in 6 of their last 20 home games, and Tottenham on the road have had at least one team scoreless in 10 of their last 20 away games. Put those two together and the picture is pretty clear.

Key Points:

• Manchester United have won 12 of their last 20 home games, scoring 2.15 per game

• Tottenham have won 0 of their last 5, failing to score in 3 of those games

• The recent head-to-head at this venue was a 2–0 Manchester United win

• Tottenham's away record: 6W 5D 9L in 20 games, scoring 1.1 per game

• Tottenham's xG for in recent games is just 0.76 per game

So here's my take: I'm going with both teams not to score. The numbers say at least one of these sides will go blank, and Tottenham's scoring drought is the most telling piece of evidence. At 2.55, you get a decent return if you think Spurs can't find the net, and I do.