Preview
Right, so we've got Mantova hosting Cremonese on 27 October in Serie B, and if you've been keeping an eye on the numbers, this one's got a story to tell.
Let's start with the home end. Mantova have won 11 of their last 20 home games, sitting on 1.8 points per game and scoring 1.75 a game. That's a solid record, and it's the kind of home base that makes visiting teams nervous. In their last five matches across all grounds, they've picked up 3 wins, a draw and a loss, scoring 8 goals along the way. They came back from a 0-2 defeat to Palermo at home on 17 October to win 1-0 away at Virtus Entella on 24 October, so the form is ticking along nicely.
Now flip it to the other side of the table. Cremonese on the road? Well, 5 wins, 3 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 away games. That's 0.9 points per game and just 0.7 goals scored per outing. And their current form is... let's say it's not great. They've lost their last two, scoring just 1 goal and conceding 4. They managed a 0-0 draw at Arezzo on 10 October, but before that they were beaten 3-1 at Pisa. In their last five games, they've only scored 2 goals in total. Three of those five saw them fail to score at all.
The head-to-head here is a bit dated — the last time these two met was back in April 2025, when Cremonese won 4-2 at their own ground, and before that Mantova took a 1-0 at home in November 2024. So there's no recent pattern to lean on. This is all about current form and venue records.
The xG numbers back it up too. Cremonese have been generating just 0.6 expected goals per game over their last five matches with xG data, and they've actually scored only 1 goal in those five. Mantova, by contrast, are sitting on 1.41 xG per game for and have found 10 actual goals in six such games.
Now, the counter-argument: Mantova did lose 0-2 to Palermo at home on 17 October, and that's a reminder that even a strong home record doesn't guarantee the three points every time. Cremonese did pick up a 1-0 win away at Juventus on 2 October (albeit a friendly), and they've kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5. So they're not completely without a spark.
But when you stack it all up — Mantova's 11 wins from 20 home games against Cremonese's 12 losses from 20 away games, Cremonese's two-game losing run with just 1 goal, and the xG numbers showing a Cremonese attack that's basically switched off — the balance tips firmly towards the hosts.
The market has Mantova at 2.4 for the win, which implies about 42% chance. My read is that the hosts are more likely than that to take this one. I'd put it around 55%, which gives us a bit of value on the price.
Key Points:
- Mantova have won 11 of their last 20 home games, scoring 1.75 per game
- Cremonese have lost 12 of their last 20 away games, scoring just 0.7 per game
- Cremonese have lost their last two matches, scoring only 1 goal in total
- The head-to-head is 18 months old, so current form and venue records tell the story
- Cremonese's xG for is 0.6 per game over their last five matches with data
My pick: Mantova home win at 2.4.
