Mantova vs Empoli Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Serie B clash. Mantova, sitting 18th with just 14 points, welcome an Empoli side who are 10th on 20 points. The bookies can't split 'em, with both sides at 2.75 to win. But sometimes the numbers tell a clearer story than the odds.

Mantova are having a proper nightmare, ain't they? Three defeats on the bounce. They lost 3-2 to high-flying Cesena, which you can forgive, but then they went and lost 1-0 at home to Reggiana. Before that, they got a proper hiding, 3-0 away at Venezia. Their last win was a 4-1 thumping of Spezia, but let's be honest, Spezia are down there with them. At home, they score a decent 1.40 goals a game, but they also let in 1.20. They love having the ball – a whopping 69% possession on average at their gaff – but all that possession ain't translating to wins. They're having loads of shots (over 19 per game at home) but only hitting the target with about a third of 'em. All huff and puff, not enough bite.

Now, Empoli. They're a funny old side. They've lost their last two, 2-0 at Juve Stabia and 1-3 at home to Palermo. But just before that, they were smashing teams. A 5-0 demolition of Bari and a 3-0 away win at Avellino show they know how to put the lesser lights to the sword. On the road, they win 40% of the time, scoring 1.20 and conceding 1.20. They won't have the ball much – they average just 50% possession away – but they might not need it. They'll sit in, let Mantova have it, and look to hit 'em on the break. And with Mantova giving away plenty of fouls, Empoli might get their chances from set pieces.

The head-to-head? Nothing. First meeting, so it's all about current form.

So, where's the value? Mantova are in a right slump and their fancy possession stats aren't getting results. Empoli, despite the recent blip, are the better side on paper and have shown they can go away and beat teams in the bottom half convincingly. At odds of 2.75 for an Empoli win, I think there's a bit of value. The market is pricing them at about a 36% chance, but I reckon they're closer to a 40-42% shot here.

As for goals, the averages point to about 2.5. But Mantova's home games tend to be a bit tighter, and Empoli's last two were low-scoring for them. I'm leaning towards this being a tight, maybe scrappy affair, but with Empoli's extra quality just nicking it.

Key Points:

Mantova have lost three in a row and are 18th in the table.

Empoli are 10th and have shown they can batter weaker sides away from home (5-0 vs Bari, 3-0 vs Avellino).

Mantova dominate possession (69% at home) but are inefficient in front of goal.

Empoli are happy to concede the ball and hit on the counter.

• The odds of 2.75 for an Empoli win offer value against a struggling home side.

Summary: It's a proper six-pointer down the bottom. Mantova are desperate, but their form is rotten. Empoli have the better squad and a recent history of putting away teams in the lower reaches. At a decent price, I'm backing the away side to come away with all three points.