Preview
PajimonRight, so we've got Mantova hosting Palermo here in Serie B, and I'm telling you, this one's got the smell of a proper goal-fest about it. Let me walk you through why.
Palermo have been absolutely cooking. Four wins and a draw in their last five, and they've scored 15 goals in that stretch — three per game, my friend. Their last outing was a 4-2 away win at Empoli just seven days before this, and before that they beat Padova 2-1 at home and won 3-1 against Sampdoria. They're on a two-game winning run and haven't lost in five. Their xG numbers back it up too — 2.67 per game in the games where we've got data. That's a team that's creating and converting, and it's not just one or two players doing the work.
Now, Mantova are at home, and that's where they've been solid. Over the last 20 home games, they've won 11, drawn 3 and lost 6, scoring 1.8 per game and conceding 1.25. That's a decent home record. They've won their last game 3-1 away at Catanzaro six days before this, and before that they beat Sampdoria 2-0 at home. But their overall form in the last five is 2W 2D 1L, and that 5-2 Coppa Italia loss to Palermo six weeks ago is still sitting in the back of my mind. You don't forget getting thumped like that.
The head-to-head tells a clear story in the recent meetings. Palermo won 5-2 at their ground in September and 2-1 there in March. The only meeting at Mantova's ground in the last 12 months was a 1-1 draw in January. So when these two meet, goals have been flowing — both teams scored in all three of the recent meetings. The older meetings go back further, but those are just historical record and don't really tell you what's happening now.
Here's the thing that's got me leaning this way: both teams have scored in every one of their last five games. Palermo scored in all five, Mantova scored in all five. In the head-to-head, both teams found the net in all three of the recent meetings. Mantova's home record shows 11 of 20 games with both teams scoring, and Palermo's away record shows 10 of 20. The market's pricing both teams to score at 1.57, which implies about 64%, but I think the evidence pushes it higher than that. I'd put it around 70%. That's a comfortable edge over what the bookies are giving you.
The counter-argument? Well, Mantova's home record is strong, and the last meeting at this ground was a 1-1. Palermo's away record over 20 games is 7W 7D 6L, which is decent but not dominant. And if Mantova park the bus at home, you could see a tight game. But given that both teams have been scoring freely and the H2H has been goal-heavy, I don't think we're looking at a 0-0 or a 1-0. This is the kind of game where you grab your beer, sit back, and enjoy the show.
Key Points:
- Palermo have scored in all 5 of their last 5 games and won 4 of them
- Mantova have scored in all 5 of their last 5 games
- Both teams scored in all 3 of the recent head-to-head meetings
- Mantova's home record: 11W 3D 6L in 20 games, 1.8 goals per game
- The market prices both teams to score at 1.57, but the evidence suggests a higher likelihood
My pick: Both teams to score, Yes.