Middelfart host Roskilde on 17 October in the 2. Division, and I have to be honest — the little dog in this one is struggling to find a bone. Roskilde arrive in scintillating shape: three wins and two draws from their last five with no defeats, and their last two matches have been clean-sheet victories — 3–0 over Skive at home and 2–0 at Thisted FC on the road. Over their latest 10 games, Roskilde have scored 23 goals while conceding just 7, and their away record over 20 games reads 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses at 1.8 points per game. That is a team on a roll, and the numbers back it up.
Middelfart, by contrast, have managed just one win from their last five — a 1–0 home victory over FA 2000 on 3 October — with three draws and a 1–3 defeat at B 93 on 10 October. Their home record over 20 games is 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses at 1.1 points per game, and they have conceded 1.9 goals per game at home. The most recent head-to-head meeting, back in August at Roskilde's ground, ended 1–1, and the older meetings are split: Roskilde won two, Middelfart won one, and one was a draw. Those older meetings are historical and I would not lean on them for current form.
Now, here is where I root for the underdog. Three of Middelfart's last five games ended in draws, and the head-to-head has produced low-scoring affairs — four of the five total meetings finished under 2.5 goals. Roskilde's away record does show 12 of 20 games going over 2.5, so the visitors are not a guaranteed low-scoring proposition. And the fact that the only recent meeting between these two sides was a 1–1 draw suggests the fixture can be tight. There is a small thread of hope for the home side here.
But the underdog angle is thin, and I have to be honest with you. Roskilde are the slight favourites at 2.55 (39.22% implied), and the football evidence — their unbeaten run, their defensive solidity on the road, and their scoring output — all points in their direction. Middelfart at 2.64 (37.88% implied) look like the underdog in the market, but their recent results and home record do not give me enough confidence to rate their chances above the market's view. The draw at 3.5 (28.57% implied) is the other underdog in the 1X2 market, but with Roskilde in such strong form and only one recent meeting between the sides, I cannot honestly place the draw above the market's percentage. I'd love to back the little guy here, but the numbers simply do not let me.
Key Points:
- Roskilde are unbeaten in their last five (3W 2D 0L) and have won their last two with clean sheets
- Middelfart have won just 1 of their last 5 and lost their most recent game 1–3
- Roskilde's away record: 10W 6D 4L in 20 games; Middelfart's home record: 6W 4D 10L
- The only recent head-to-head meeting (15 August 2026) was a 1–1 draw
- Four of the five total head-to-head meetings finished under 2.5 goals
No Bet — the available prices do not offer value on the underdog side given the football evidence.
