Middlesbrough vs Cardiff Prediction

Look, I'll be honest with you - Middlesbrough have been putting on a proper show lately, and it's the kind of football that makes you want to fire up the braai and crack open a cold one. The B's have gone 3 wins and 2 draws in their last five with no defeats, and they've won their last two - that 3-2 away at Stoke on 13 October and the 1-0 against Wolves at home on 10 October. At home over 20 games, Middlesbrough sit at 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses, averaging 1.8 points per game and conceding just 0.9 per match. Eight clean sheets in those 20 home games tells you the back line is holding up properly.

Cardiff, though, have been a bit of a mixed bag on the road. Their recent away games include losses at Blackburn (1-2) and Bolton (0-1), and over 20 away games they've managed 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses at 1.4 points per game. They concede 1.5 per game away and have only kept 3 clean sheets in 20. The 5-1 thrashing of Watford at home on 13 October was a nice one, but that's at their own ground, not on the road where they're heading.

Now, the head-to-head here is all historical - no meetings in the last 12 months - but when they did meet, Middlesbrough won 4 of 5 and drew 1. At Middlesbrough's ground specifically, it was 1 win and 1 draw from 2 meetings. So the old numbers say the B's have the edge at this venue, but I'll be upfront - those games are 2 to 3 years old and don't really tell you what's happening now.

The counter-argument, and this is where it gets interesting, is that Cardiff have been scoring. They've netted 10 goals in their last five at 2 per game, and they've scored in 4 of those 5. Middlesbrough have also been involved in open games - 4 of their last 5 went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 of those 5. Cardiff's away record shows 15 of 20 games with both teams scoring, and Middlesbrough's home record has 9 of 20. The recent form on both sides points to goals being on the table, and that's what I'm leaning on.

Key Points:

• Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last five (3W 2D) and have won their last two

• Cardiff have lost both of their recent away games and average 1.4 points per game on the road

• Both teams have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches

• The head-to-head is entirely historical (no meetings in the last 12 months)

• Middlesbrough's home record: 10W 6D 4L, 0.9 conceded per game; Cardiff's away record: 7W 7D 6L, 1.5 conceded per game

My verdict: both teams to score.