Millwall vs Birmingham Prediction

A test of the present against the past, this is. Third in the Championship, Millwall sit, yet stumble against Portsmouth they did - 1-3, a scoreline troubling for the hosts against a side near the bottom. Before that, victory at Sheffield Wednesday, 2-1, and a clean sheet at Wrexham, 2-0. Inconsistent, the force is with these Lions.

But arrive, the Blues do, on a run most impressive. Unbeaten in ten games, they are - six victories, four draws, zero defeats. Fear, they know not. Away from home, warriors they become: 80% of their last five travels, they have conquered, scoring two goals per game while conceding less than one. At Norwich, high-flying and strong, they struck twice to win 2-1. Against Coventry, top of the table, they triumphed 3-2. Quality opponents, they have bested.

History, however, a shadow casts. At The Den against Birmingham, dominant Millwall have been - 75% victory rate in recent meetings, including three consecutive home wins. Yet 4-0, Birmingham won the reverse fixture this season. Conflicted, the data is.

The numbers reveal: Millwall at home, 2.00 goals they score but 1.25 they concede. Birmingham away, 2.00 they score but merely 0.80 they allow. Tight at the back, the visitors are. Six shots on target per game at home, Millwall manage, but against the defensive solidity of Birmingham - who concede few chances - frustrated they may be.

Value, I sense in the away victory. Odds of 2.80, too generous they appear for a side whose momentum is strong, against hosts who recently to a struggling Portsmouth fell. The wise bet, Birmingham to win is. History, a guide it is, but form, the living truth it represents.

Key Points:

• Unbeaten in ten games Birmingham are (6 wins, 4 draws), scoring 17 and conceding just 9

• Strong away form the Blues possess: 80% win rate in last five away trips, averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded

• Millwall lost three of last ten, including a 1-3 home defeat to Portsmouth (19th place) last time out

• Historically dominant at home vs Birmingham Millwall are (75% win rate), but 4-0 losers in the reverse fixture this season

• Birmingham's away defensive record (0.80 goals conceded per game) suggests they can frustrate Millwall's attack (2.00 home goals average)

Summary: The force of momentum, trust we must. Birmingham to win at 2.80, the selection is. Unbeaten in ten and superb on the road, value in their price I find.