Millwall vs Birmingham Prediction

Right then, Tuesday night under the lights at The Den and we've got a proper Championship dust-up between two sides with promotion on their minds. Millwall are sitting pretty in third, but Birmingham are the form horse right now and travelling like an absolute train.

The Lions have been a bit Jekyll and Hyde lately, haven't they? Banging four past Charlton in a 4-0 rout and putting two past playoff-chasing Wrexham away shows they've got the tools, but that 1-3 home defeat to Portsmouth last time out was a proper shocker – especially against a side struggling down near the bottom. Before that, they ground out results against Sheffield Wednesday (2-1) and Watford (2-0), but you never quite know which Millwall's going to turn up.

Now Birmingham, blimey, they're on some run! Ten games unbeaten – six wins and four draws – and they've been picking up points for fun. That 2-1 win at Norwich was quality, beating a side that's been flying high, and they've been solid at the back with only nine goals conceded in that entire stretch. Their away form is particularly tasty with four wins in their last five on the road, scoring two a game and keeping things tighter than a drum at the back.

Head-to-head, Millwall usually fancy this at home – they've won three of the last four against the Blues at The Den with a 75% win rate. But hold your horses, the reverse fixture back in November was an absolute nightmare for the Lions, getting hammered 4-0. That'll still be stinging.

Key Points:

• Birmingham are unbeaten in their last 10 matches (6 wins, 4 draws, 2.20 PPG)

• Millwall have won 75% of their home games against Birmingham in recent head-to-heads

• Both teams have scored in 60% of Millwall's last 10 and 70% of Birmingham's last 10

• Birmingham have won 80% of their last 5 away games, scoring 2.00 per game

• Millwall lost their last home game 1-3 to Portsmouth (19th in the table)

• Expected goals: Millwall 1.40, Birmingham 1.62 (3.02 total expected)

Summary:

With both sides finding the net regularly – Millwall averaging 1.60 goals per game and Birmingham 1.70 – and neither looking like keeping a clean sheet against decent opposition, the Both Teams To Score market looks the value play. Birmingham's defensive solidity (0.90 conceded per game) is balanced by Millwall's need to bounce back from that Portsmouth shocker. At 1.80, it's a cracking shout for a game that should have goals in it.