Millwall vs Portsmouth Prediction

Difficult to see, the outcome is not. When third meets nineteenth, and home meets away, the force of momentum speaks loudly it does. At The Den this Saturday, a tale of two seasons unfolds - one of promotion dreams, the other of survival struggles.

Strong at home, Millwall are. Seventy-five percent victory rate at their fortress, boasting 2.25 goals per game while conceding but 0.75. Like a well-trained Jedi, disciplined they have been - four clean sheets in their last ten, and victories against worthy opponents such as Wrexham (2-0) and Watford (2-0) demonstrate their power. Even against the league leaders Coventry, narrow the defeat was (2-1). Dominant they were against Charlton (4-0), showing the attacking force that lies within.

Struggling for consistency, Portsmouth are. Nineteenth in the galaxy... er, table, with merely nine victories all season. Four days rest they have had, tired legs may carry from their Wednesday battle with Charlton. While a 3-1 victory that was, before that, shut out by Sheffield United and Preston they were. Five goals shipped to Bristol City earlier (0-5), fragile their defense away from home appears - 1.60 goals conceded per game on their travels.

The history between these two, telling a story it does. Five victories in six meetings for Millwall, including a 3-1 triumph earlier this season. At home, undefeated against Pompey they remain in recent times. The goal expectancy whispers of a 1.93 to 0.88 advantage to the hosts - nearly two goals expected for the Lions, less than one for the visitors.

Key Points:

• Millwall have won 75% of recent home games, scoring 2.25 goals per game

• Portsmouth have lost 40% of away games, conceding 1.60 per game on the road

• Millwall won 5 of last 6 head-to-heads, including 3-1 earlier this season

• Portsmouth have 4 days rest vs Millwall's 7 days - fatigue a factor it may be

• Goal expectancy: Millwall 1.93, Portsmouth 0.88

Bet, or bet not. There is no try. At 1.90, value in the home win there is. The force of The Den, too strong for the struggling visitors it will prove. A home victory, wise it is to back.