Millwall vs Sheffield Utd Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Championship clash. Millwall are sitting pretty in 5th, just three points off the automatic spots, while Sheffield United are down in 17th, looking over their shoulder a bit. It's a classic top-half vs bottom-half battle at the Den.

Millwall are coming off a right morale-booster, smashing Charlton 4-0 last time out. That's the sort of result that gets the place rocking. Their home form is the foundation of their season: winning 60% of their last five at the Den, scoring 1.8 and conceding just 1.0 per game on their own patch. They've beaten the likes of Bristol City and Swansea here recently, and held high-flying Ipswich to a 0-0 draw. Even the losses were to good sides – Coventry and Hull City. They're a tough nut to crack at home.

Sheffield United, bless 'em, are a proper puzzle. One week they're beating Ipswich 3-1 at home, the next they're losing 1-0 away to Charlton – the same Charlton Millwall just put four past. That tells you everything about their travel sickness. Their away record is grim: just one win in their last five on the road, losing four, and they're conceding an average of two goals per game in those matches. They can score – they average 1.8 overall – but it dries up to just 1.0 per game away from home.

The head-to-head makes for interesting reading. No draws in the last nine meetings! Millwall have won five, United four. More importantly, Millwall have won the last two clashes, both by a 1-0 scoreline. Tight, low-scoring affairs have been the theme.

So, what's the play? The bookies have Millwall at 2.55 to win. Given the gulf in league position, Millwall's strong home form, and United's dire away record, that looks like a bit of value to me. United might have a go – they average more shots and possession – but their finishing on the road is suspect (30% shot accuracy away). Millwall are more efficient, with nearly 39% shot accuracy overall and a solid 40% clean sheet rate.

Key Points:

Millwall are 5th, flying high; Sheffield United are 17th and inconsistent.

Millwall's home form: W3, D1, L1 in last five, scoring 1.8, conceding 1.0 per game.

Sheffield United's away form: W1, L4 in last five, conceding 2.0 per game.

Head-to-head: Millwall have won the last two meetings 1-0.

• Millwall keep clean sheets in 40% of games; United only in 10%.

All the simple maths points one way. Sheffield United are a different beast at home, but on the road they've been a soft touch. At a price just over 2/1, backing Millwall to get the job done at the Den is the sensible shout.