Preview
PajimonRight, so we've got Millwall hosting Swansea on 13 October, and I'll be honest — this one's got me reaching for the cold one before the kick-off.
Swansea have been absolutely cooking. Three wins in a row — 2–1 at home against Norwich on 10 October, 2–1 at Lincoln on 19 September, and 3–1 against Burnley on 12 September. That's 7 goals scored and just 3 conceded in that run. In their last 10 games across all venues, they've picked up 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, averaging 2 points per game. Their xG against in the last 4 games with data sits at just 0.9 per game, which tells you their backline has been tight. And their attacking xG is 1.73 per game — they're creating plenty.
Now, Millwall at home are no pushovers. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 10, drawn 3 and lost 7, averaging 1.65 points per game. They score 1.55 per game at home and concede 1.05, with 9 clean sheets in that stretch. That's a respectable record. And in the most recent head-to-head at this ground — 4 January 2026 — Millwall won 2–1.
But here's the thing, boet: Millwall's recent form has been a bit of a mess. In their last 5 games, they've managed 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses. They lost 1–3 to Blackburn on 12 September and 0–1 to Newcastle on 8 September in the League Cup. Their xG against in the last 5 games with data is 1.47 per game, which means they're leaking goals. The only positive is that 1–0 win at Preston on 10 October, three days before this fixture.
The counter-argument for Millwall is straightforward: their home record is solid, they've got that recent head-to-head win at this ground, and Swansea's away record over 20 games is 8 wins, 2 draws and 10 losses. That's not a great away record. But I'd argue that 20-game away stretch doesn't capture where Swansea are right now. Their last 3 games have been wins, and the xG numbers back up that defensive solidity.
The market has this one level at 2.75 for both sides, implying 36.36% for each. I think Swansea's current form and the xG evidence give them a genuine edge here. I'd rate their chance of winning at around 43%, which sits above the market's 36.36%.
Key Points:
- Swansea won their last 3 games, scoring 7 and conceding 3
- Millwall's last 5 games: 1W 2D 2L, with xG against at 1.47 per game
- Millwall's home record: 10W 3D 7L in 20 games, 1.65 PPG
- Recent head-to-head at Millwall's ground: 2–1 to Millwall on 4 January 2026
- Swansea's xG against in last 4 games with data: 0.9 per game
My pick: away win.