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Right, so here we are. Minnesota United FC hosting St. Louis City on 17 October, and if you've been following the form books, this one looks like it's got a bit of a one-sided story to tell.
St. Louis City are flying. Five wins in their last five, 19 goals scored, just 5 conceded. That's a 3.8 goals per game output that would make any manager weep with joy. They've got a current run of five straight wins, and looking at their last 10 across all grounds, they've won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0. That's 2.4 points per game, which is proper top-tier stuff. And their away record over the last 20 games tells the same story — 9 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses, 1.6 points per game. They've been scoring 1.6 per game on the road and conceding 1.4. The matchup tables put it side by side, and St. Louis's away numbers sit comfortably ahead of Minnesota's home record of 4 wins, 9 draws and 7 losses at 1.05 points per game.
Now, just four weeks ago, these two met at St. Louis City's ground, and St. Louis put 4 to 2 on the scoreboard. Minnesota had a red card in the 80th minute, which probably made things a bit harder for them, but even with 10 men, St. Louis were still scoring freely. That's the only meeting between these two in the last 12 months, so it's the most relevant head-to-head we've got. And it says St. Louis are the team to watch.
The counter-argument, if you want one, is that Minnesota United have historically done well at home against St. Louis. In the older meetings — and I do mean older, we're talking 17 to 24 months ago — Minnesota won 3-2, 3-0 and 4-1 at their own ground. But I'll be straight with you: those are historical. There's not a single meeting between these two at Minnesota's ground in the last 12 months. So those old results don't really tell you what's going to happen on 17 October.
And let's be honest about Minnesota's current form. Zero wins in their last five. One draw, four losses. They've conceded 14 goals in those five games — that's 2.8 per game. They haven't kept a clean sheet in any of them. Their points per game over the last 10 is 0.6, which is... well, it's not great. They did score in every one of those last five, so they're not completely toothless, and they've gone over 2.5 goals in all five of those matches. But the results don't lie, and the 0.2 points per game over the last five is a tough pill to swallow.
So the football story is pretty clear: St. Louis City are the team in form, and Minnesota United are struggling. The numbers back it up on every front — goals scored, goals conceded, points per game, clean sheets. St. Louis are the stronger side heading into this one, and the evidence points firmly in their direction.
The problem for me, and for anyone looking to have a little bit on this, is that the available prices could not be used for a recommendation. I'd love to have a bit on St. Louis, but I can't. Hands up, no bet.
Key Points:
- St. Louis City have won their last 5 matches, scoring 19 and conceding just 5
- Minnesota United FC have won 0 of their last 5, conceding 14 goals in that span
- The only meeting in the last 12 months was a 4-2 St. Louis win at their own ground
- St. Louis's away record (9W 5D 6L over 20 games) outperforms Minnesota's home record (4W 9D 7L)
- No eligible price is available for this fixture
Verdict: No Bet.