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The force is strong with St. Louis City, I tell you. Five games, five wins, nineteen goals scored, five conceded. A run that stretches back to 13 September and has not wavered. The Galaxy fell six to two at St. Louis City's ground on 11 October, the Red Bulls were dismantled three to zero in New York on 30 September, and Toronto FC were beaten three to one on the road on 20 September. This is a side scoring at 3.8 goals a game and conceding just one. You do not see this often, I must admit.
Minnesota United FC, meanwhile, have won none of their last five. A 2–2 draw with Houston Dynamo on 11 October is the only point they have salvaged, and before that came defeats to Seattle Sounders (1–3), Los Angeles Galaxy (2–3), St. Louis City themselves (2–4), and FC Dallas (1–2). Four losses in five games, 14 goals conceded, and not a single clean sheet. The home record over 20 games tells a similar story: 4 wins, 9 draws, 7 losses, 1.05 points per game. St. Louis City's away record over the same span is 9 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses, 1.6 points per game. The gap is clear, and it is not small.
The head-to-head at this venue is thin. There has been no meeting at Minnesota United FC's ground within the last 12 months. The one recent meeting, on 13 September, was at St. Louis City's ground, and the visitors were beaten 4–2. Older meetings at this ground — 3–2, 3–0, 4–1 — are historical record, stretching back 17 to 24 months. They remind us that Minnesota United FC have had this fixture before, but they do not tell us what happens now. The dates dilute, you see. Old battles do not win new wars.
The counter-argument, such as it is, rests on the fact that Minnesota United FC have scored in every one of their last five matches. Both teams to score has been yes in all five. Their xG for over seven recent games sits at 2.18 per game, which suggests they are creating chances even when the results do not follow. St. Louis City, for their part, have kept clean sheets in two of their last five, and their xG against is just 1.08 per game. A tight game is possible, but the momentum flows one way, and it flows fast.
Key Points:
- St. Louis City have won their last five matches, scoring 19 and conceding 5.
- Minnesota United FC have won just 1 of their last 10, with 6 losses.
- St. Louis City's away record (9W 5D 6L) outperforms Minnesota United FC's home record (4W 9D 7L).
- The only recent meeting between these sides ended 4–2 to St. Louis City on 13 September.
- Minnesota United FC have scored in all five of their last matches, but have conceded 14 in that span.
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