Preview
Umery UnderdogSt. Louis City arrive at Minnesota United FC's ground riding a wave that few in Major League Soccer can match. Their last five matches have produced five wins, with 19 goals scored and just 5 conceded — a run that includes a 6–2 demolition of Los Angeles Galaxy on 11 October and a 3–0 away win at New York Red Bulls on 30 September. Over their last 10 games across all venues, St. Louis City have recorded 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses, averaging 3 goals per game while conceding just 1.3. Their away record over 20 games tells a similar story: 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses, with 1.6 points per game and 1.6 goals scored per outing. This is a team that is clicking on all cylinders, and the little puppy the market has overlooked is barking loudly.
Minnesota United FC, by contrast, are in a genuine struggle. Their last five matches have yielded 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses, with 8 goals scored and 14 conceded. Their home record over 20 games shows 4 wins, 9 draws and 7 losses — 1.05 points per game — and they have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last five matches. The 4–2 defeat at St. Louis City's ground on 13 September, where Minnesota United FC received a red card in the 80th minute, sits in the middle of this run of poor results. Their latest home outing, a 2–2 draw with Houston Dynamo on 11 October, was the only positive note in an otherwise bleak stretch.
The counter-argument for Minnesota United FC is their history at this venue. In three older meetings at their ground (dating back to 2024 and 2025), Minnesota United FC won all three — 3–2, 3–0 and 4–1 — though these are historical results and the most recent meeting between the two sides was the 4–2 St. Louis City win on 13 September. Home advantage and that historical record give Minnesota United FC a base to build on, and the market does reflect a slight lean towards the home side at 2.5. But the current form gap is stark, and those older meetings do not tell us what these two teams look like today.
Key Points:
- St. Louis City have won their last 5 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 5
- Minnesota United FC have lost 4 of their last 5 and have no clean sheets in that span
- St. Louis City's away record: 9W 5D 6L in 20 games, 1.6 points per game
- Minnesota United FC's home record: 4W 9D 7L in 20 games, 1.05 points per game
- The only recent head-to-head meeting (13 September) was a 4–2 St. Louis City win
The market prices St. Louis City's win at 2.7, implying a 37.04% chance, but the football evidence points to a team in dominant form visiting a side that has lost four of its last five. I rate St. Louis City's chance of winning here at roughly 55%, which sits well above the market's view. This is the underdog the market has overlooked, and I'm happy to back them. My pick: away win.