Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so Mirassol are at home and Internacional are on the road, and if you've got a minute to look at the numbers, this one's got a story to tell.
Mirassol's home record over the last 20 games at their ground is 9 wins, 6 draws, 5 losses. That's 1.65 points per game, they're scoring 1.35 a game and conceding 1.15. Now flip that to Internacional's away record over 20 games: 5 wins, 6 draws, 9 losses. 1.05 points per game, 1.1 scored, 1.5 conceded. The gap is there, plain as day. Mirassol are picking up more points, scoring more, and keeping more clean sheets — 5 out of 20 at home versus 3 out of 20 on the road for Internacional. And Mirassol have failed to score in just 2 of those 20 home games, while Internacional have gone blank in 6 of their 20 away trips.
And the head-to-head? The only meeting within the last 12 months was back in April at Internacional's ground, and Mirassol won it 2-1 on the road. Before that, the last time they met at Mirassol's ground was October 2025, and Mirassol won 3-1. So across all three meetings, Mirassol have won two and drawn one. Internacional haven't beaten them. Now I'll be fair — those older games are historical, and the dates stretch back 11 months, so I'm not treating that as gospel. But the recent meeting at least tells you Mirassol can handle this fixture.
Mirassol's last five games: two wins, two draws, one loss. They beat Botafogo 2-0 at home on 19 September and drew 2-2 with Vitoria before that. The 4-0 win at Uberlandia was a friendly, so I'm not counting that as league form. Their most recent outing was a 0-1 loss at Bahia on 11 October, and they picked up a red card in the Bragantino draw before that. So they're not flying, but they're not falling apart either. Over those last five, they've scored 1.8 per game and conceded 0.8.
Internacional's last five: two wins, one draw, two losses. They drew 1-1 at Gremio on 11 October, beat Corinthians 2-1 at home, but lost 0-1 at Sao Paulo and 2-3 at home to Santos. They haven't kept a clean sheet in their last five games. On the road over 20 games, they've failed to score in 6 of those 20, which tells you their away attack can go quiet.
Now the counter-argument, because I'm not a fool. Mirassol's xG numbers in their last three games with data are a bit worrying — they've been expected to concede 1.96 a game, and their own xG for is sitting at 0.93 per game. That suggests they've been a bit below their expected output and a touch more vulnerable than the results show. And Internacional have scored in four of their last five, so they're not a team that just parks the bus on the road. The 4-0 friendly win also means Mirassol's "hot" form has one game that doesn't count for league purposes.
But here's the thing: the home record gap is significant. Mirassol are picking up 1.65 points per game at home compared to Internacional's 1.05 away, and the head-to-head, even with its dated nature, points the same way. The market has Mirassol at 2.32, which prices them at about 43%. I'd put their actual chance closer to 53%, which means there's value in the home win.
Key Points:
- Mirassol's home record (9W 6D 5L, 1.65 ppg) sits well ahead of Internacional's away record (5W 6D 9L, 1.05 ppg)
- The only recent head-to-head meeting (April 2026) was a Mirassol 2-1 win away
- Mirassol's last five: 2W 2D 1L, scoring 1.8 per game and conceding 0.8
- Internacional haven't kept a clean sheet in their last five and have failed to score in 6 of 20 away games
- Mirassol's recent xG against (1.96 per game) suggests some underlying vulnerability
My pick: Mirassol home win at 2.32.