Modena vs Cesena Prediction

Right, so we've got Modena hosting Cesena on 24 October in Serie B, and if you've been keeping an eye on the numbers, this one's got a low-scoring smell to it.

Let's start with the head-to-head, because it sets the tone. The last time these two met at Modena's ground — back in March — it ended 0-0. Not a goal between them. And before that, at Cesena's place, it was 1-0 to the visitors. So the two meetings within the last year have been tight, low-scoring affairs. I'll be honest, it's a small sample, but it tells you something about how this fixture tends to play out.

Now look at Cesena's away record over 20 games: 4 wins, 6 draws, 10 losses. They've scored just 0.6 goals per game on the road and conceded 1.4. That's a side that struggles to find the back of the net away from home. And in their last five matches, four of them finished under 2.5 goals. They drew 1-1 at home against Avellino six days ago, lost 0-2 at Benevento, and before that, a 1-1 draw at Juve Stabia and a 2-2 draw at home against Cremonese. No wins in five. The goals just aren't coming for them on the road.

Modena at home, though, are a different proposition. Over 20 home games, they've won 8, drawn 4, lost 8, scoring 1.4 per game and conceding 0.95. They're a decent side at home, no doubt. But here's the thing — 13 of those 20 home games went over 2.5. So their home record actually leans towards goals. That's the main counter-argument to the under, and it's worth taking seriously.

And Modena's last five has been a bit of a rollercoaster: a 3-2 win over Hellas Verona at home, a 2-1 win over Empoli, then a 1-1 draw at Sudtirol, a 0-1 loss to Avellino at home, and most recently a 1-2 defeat at Carrarese. They've lost their last game, and they've had a 0-1 loss at home recently. So they're not in their absolute best patch, which keeps the under a little more alive.

The xG numbers back up the picture. Modena are averaging 1.3 xG for and 1.02 against over their last five games with data. Cesena are at 1.14 for and 1.04 against. So Modena's attack is a touch sharper, and their defence is a touch tighter. Not a massive gap, but it's there.

So here's where I land. The market's pricing under 2.5 at 2.14, which implies about 47%. I think the real chance is a bit higher than that — closer to 53% — because of Cesena's poor away scoring record, the 0-0 at this very ground in March, and the fact that four of Cesena's last five games have been low-scoring. The main worry is that Modena's home record does lean over, and they've had three over-2.5 games in their last five. But the balance of evidence tips me towards the under.

Key Points:

• The H2H at Modena's ground in March ended 0-0; the other recent meeting was 1-0

• Cesena have scored just 0.6 per game away over 20 games, with 13 of 20 finishing under 2.5

• Four of Cesena's last five matches ended under 2.5 goals

• Modena's home record leans over 2.5 (13 of 20), which is the main counter-argument

• Modena lost their last game 1-2 at Carrarese and are not in perfect form

My pick: under 2.5 goals.