Preview
Modena vs Hellas Verona. Serie B. 11 October 2026. And if you want to know where the value is, you don't need to look far. You just need to look at the away column.
Hellas Verona's record over their last 20 away games is 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses. That's 0.95 points per game. They concede 1.6 per outing and fail to score in 7 of those 20. That is not a side that travels well. Modena, sitting at home, have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses across 20 home games — 1.4 points per game, 1.35 scored, 0.9 conceded. Put those two sets of numbers side by side and the key rows favour the home side. Points per game: 1.4 to 0.95. Goals scored: 1.35 to 0.95. Goals conceded: 0.9 to 1.6. Clean sheets: 8 to 3. This isn't a close matchup on the venue data. It's a clear one.
Modena arrive with some momentum. Three wins, one draw and one loss in their last five, including a 2–1 home win over Empoli on 20 September and a 3–0 away win at Cremonese on 28 August. Their current run is a single win, but the ten-game picture — 5W 2D 3L, 1.6 scored per game, 0.8 conceded — tells you this is a side finding its footing. They've scored in 7 of their last 10 and kept clean sheets in 4.
Now, I'll give Hellas Verona their due. Four wins and one loss in their last five. Thirteen goals at 2.6 per game. They haven't failed to score in any of their last ten matches. The 3–1 friendly over FC Lugano on 2 October and the 5–0 home win over Arezzo on 6 September show a side with a sharp edge. But here's the thing: one of those is a friendly, one is a Coppa Italia tie, and the most recent competitive away result is the 1–3 loss at Benevento on 11 September. The away record is the one that matters on 11 October, and it's poor. Nine losses in 20 away games is a pattern, not a blip.
The head-to-head is a blank. The only meeting on record is a 3–2 friendly at Verona's ground in July 2021. No competitive meetings in the last twelve months. I'm not going to pretend that one five-year-old friendly tells us anything about how these two sides will meet. This is a genuine unknown in that regard, and I'm leaning entirely on the venue data and current form.
The counter-argument is simple: Verona's recent scoring output is exceptional, and a side that hasn't gone blank in ten games can overcome a poor away record on a good day. But the truth is in the numbers, and the numbers say Verona don't win on the road. Not often. Not reliably.
Key Points:
- Verona's away record: 4W 7D 9L in 20 games, 0.95 PPG, 1.6 conceded per game
- Modena's home record: 8W 4D 8L in 20 games, 1.4 PPG, 0.9 conceded per game
- Modena's last five: 3W 1D 1L, 8 scored, 4 conceded
- Verona's last five: 4W 0D 1L, 13 scored, 6 conceded (includes a friendly and a Coppa Italia tie)
- Head-to-head: one 2021 friendly, no competitive meetings in the last 12 months
The market prices Modena's win at 2.07, implying roughly 48% probability. My read of the venue records and recent form puts Modena's chance closer to 53%. That's a genuine edge, and it's the kind of mispricing I live for. The away record is the tell — Verona simply do not win on the road, and Modena's home numbers are solid enough to exploit that weakness. When the bookies are pricing a 48% chance for a side whose opponent has lost 45% of their away games, that's where you find your value.
Verdict: Modena home win at 2.07.
Match time