Preview
Right, so we've got Modena hosting Hellas Verona at Modena's ground on 11 October, and if you've been following the numbers, this one's got a goal in it — probably more than one.
Let's start with the most telling bit. Hellas Verona have gone over 2.5 goals in every one of their last five matches. Five out of five. That's not a fluke — stretch it back to ten games and it's eight out of ten. And their away record over 20 games? Thirteen out of twenty have seen three or more goals. They're scoring 2.1 per game in their last ten and conceding 1.1, which means the total is trending up. Their current run is two wins, with 5 goals scored and 2 conceded, and they haven't failed to score in any of their last five.
Modena at home aren't the most prolific side — 1.35 goals per game over 20 home games — but 13 of those 20 have gone over 2.5. Their last five matches have seen three out of five cross the line, and they've scored 8 and conceded 4 in that stretch. So the home end isn't a low-scoring affair either. Their home record over 20 games is 8 wins, 4 draws, 8 losses, with 0.9 conceded per game, which means the defence is holding up but the total keeps creeping up.
The counter-argument? Modena's home record is a bit of a coin-flip. They lost 0–1 to Avellino at home on 6 September, and their current run is just one win. Verona's away record is poor — 4 wins, 7 draws, 9 losses in 20 games — which means the visitors might struggle to find the goals. And the head-to-head is basically a blank slate: one friendly from 29 July 2021 where Verona won 3–2 at their own ground. No meetings within the last 12 months, so there's no recent history to lean on. The head-to-head is dated and we have to rely on current form and venue records.
But here's the thing — the goal totals are pointing the same way from both sides. Verona's last five have all been over 2.5, their away record is 65% over, and Modena's home record is 65% over. When two teams both have a 65% record of scoring three or more in their respective venues, you'd expect the total to land on the over side more often than not. Verona's scoring form is the real driver here — 13 goals in their last five, and they've scored in every single one.
The market has over 2.5 at 2.07, implying about 48%. I'd put my own estimate closer to 55%, which gives you a bit of value on the price. The evidence is consistent across multiple timeframes and both teams' records point the same way.
Key Points:
- Hellas Verona have gone over 2.5 in all 5 of their last 5 matches and 8 of their last 10
- Both teams' venue records show 13 of 20 games over 2.5 goals
- Verona's away record: 0.95 scored per game, 1.6 conceded per game over 20 games
- Modena's home record: 1.35 scored per game, 0.9 conceded per game over 20 games
- The head-to-head is a single 2021 friendly — no recent meetings to guide us
Verdict: I'm going with over 2.5 goals at 2.07.
Match time