Modena vs Mantova Prediction

Right, so we've got Modena hosting Mantova on 31 October in Serie B, and if you've been following the form books, this one's got a clear shape to it.

Modena are flying. Four wins from their last five, and they're on a two-game winning run where they've scored five and conceded just one. That's the sort of momentum that makes you feel the ground shaking when you walk into the stadium. They've scored in all five of those recent games — 11 goals in total — and gone over 2.5 in every single one. At home over 20 games, they've kept a tidy 0.95 goals conceded per game and picked up eight clean sheets. That's a side that's organised, confident, and scoring with regularity.

Now look at Mantova's week. They lost 0-2 to Cremonese at home on 27 October, and before that they were beaten 0-2 by Palermo on the same ground. Two shut-out home defeats in the last three weeks, and they've failed to score in two of their last five. Their recent form reads 2W 1D 2L, which is a bit of a mixed bag, and that last loss has left them looking a touch rattled. Away over 20 games they've managed 8W 4D 8L, but they're conceding 1.6 per game on the road, which is a lot when you're trying to keep a clean sheet.

The head-to-head here is a bit dated — the only meeting within the last 12 months was back in March, when Modena won 2-1 at home. The older meetings go back years and years, so I wouldn't lean too heavily on those. But what they do show is that Modena have won four of eight all-time meetings, and the most recent one went their way. That's a nudge in the right direction.

The counter-argument? Well, Mantova aren't a team that just folds. They've won eight away games in 20, and their xG numbers over the last seven games with data show they're creating 1.49 per game, which isn't nothing. They beat Virtus Entella 1-0 on 24 October and thrashed Catanzaro 3-1 on 11 October, so they've got the quality to spring a surprise. And the matchup table shows both sides sitting on 1.4 points per game over their 20 home/away games, so the numbers are pretty even across those 20 games. But the last five games tell a very different story, and that's what matters on matchday.

Key Points:

• Modena are on a two-game winning run, scoring 5 and conceding 1, and have won 4 of their last 5

• Mantova lost 0-2 at home to Cremonese on 27 October and have failed to score in 2 of their last 5

• Modena's home record over 20 games: 8W 4D 8L, 0.95 conceded per game, 8 clean sheets

• The only recent head-to-head meeting (March 2026) was a 2-1 Modena win at home

• Mantova concede 1.6 per game away over 20 games, which leaves them exposed

Modena are the one to back here. The recent form tells a clear story, the home numbers back it up, and the market at 1.75 is pricing them at 57.14% — I'd put their chance a touch higher than that given what they've been doing. Home win, and I'd be happy to have it on.