Preview
Mr SimpleMolde vs Start, Eliteserien, 18 October 2026.
Right, so we've got Molde hosting Start on 18 October, and if you've been keeping an eye on the numbers, this one's got the smell of a goals party about it.
Molde at home are a force. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 11, drawn 3 and lost 6, scoring 2.2 per game and keeping it to 1.2 conceded. That's 1.8 points per game, and 6 clean sheets in 20. Their last 10 games across all venues have been 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 3.7 goals per game. In their last 5, every single game went over 2.5 goals. The xG numbers back it up too — Molde are creating 2.44 expected goals per game while their opponents are only creating 0.97 against them. That's a back line that's been doing its job.
Start on the other hand, away from home, have been a bit of a struggle. Over 20 away games, they've won just 5, drawn 2 and lost 13. That's 0.85 points per game. They score 1.4 per game away but concede 2.4. Only 1 clean sheet in 20. Their last 10 games have seen 7 go over 2.5, and in their last 5, every game had three or more goals. Their xG against is 2.03 per game, which tells you their back line is leaking like a sieve.
Now, the head-to-head is mostly historical. The most recent meeting was a 1-1 draw at Start's ground back in April 2026. Before that, the last four meetings all went back to 2018 and 2020, and Molde won all four. So the H2H is dated, and we really need to lean on current form and venue records.
The counter-argument? Well, Molde's most recent game was a 2-2 draw at Lillestrom, and before that they lost 1-2 to Aalesund at home. So they're not on a winning streak. Start have won 3 of their last 5, including a 5-1 cup thrashing of Raufoss and a 2-1 friendly win over Brann. And that 1-1 draw in April showed Start can at least keep it tight. But honestly, those Start wins include two cup games and a friendly, and their competitive away form is grim.
Key Points:
- Molde's last 5 games all went over 2.5 goals; Start's last 5 did the same
- Molde's home record: 11W 3D 6L in 20, scoring 2.2 per game
- Start's away record: 5W 2D 13L in 20, conceding 2.4 per game
- Molde's xG against is 0.97 per game; Start's xG against is 2.03 per game
- The only recent head-to-head meeting (April 2026) was a 1-1 draw
So here's my take. The numbers are screaming goals. Both teams' last 5 games have been over 2.5. Molde's home scoring is 2.2 per game, Start's away conceding is 2.4 per game. Even if Molde's defence holds Start to a single goal, the total is still 3+. I'm putting my estimate at around 78%, which sits above the market's 73.53% implied by the 1.36 price. The evidence points firmly to a high-scoring game.
My tip: Over 2.5 goals.