Preview
Mr CertaintyMolde host Start in the Eliteserien on 18 October, and the numbers surrounding this fixture tell a remarkably consistent story about goals.
The most striking evidence is the recent scoring pattern. Every one of Molde's last five matches has produced three or more goals, and the same is true for Start — all five of their recent games went over 2.5. That is ten games across both squads where the total crossed the threshold. Molde's last ten games have seen 9 of 10 go over 2.5, while Start's last ten have seen 7 of 10. The head-to-head, while mostly historical, also supports the pattern: five of the seven recorded meetings between these sides produced three or more goals.
Molde's home record reinforces this. Across 20 home games, 14 have gone over 2.5, and the side averages 2.2 goals scored per game at home while conceding 1.2. In their last five matches across all venues, Molde have scored 16 goals at 3.2 per game and conceded just 5. Their xG figures over the last five games with data show 2.44 expected goals per game for and 0.97 against.
Start's away record paints a picture of a team that concedes heavily on the road. In 20 away games, 17 have gone over 2.5, and the side averages 2.4 goals conceded per game away. In their last five matches, Start have conceded 11 goals at 2.2 per game, and their xG against figure of 2.03 per game over the last three games with data suggests the defensive issues are not isolated to one bad afternoon. Their most recent match, a 2–4 home loss to Ham-Kam on 11 October, was a reminder of how quickly goals can pile up.
The counter-argument is that the only recent meeting between these two sides — a 1–1 draw at Start's ground on 19 April — finished under 2.5. The older head-to-head meetings, while showing Molde dominance, are historical and do not reflect current form. Additionally, Molde's home record does include 6 games under 2.5 out of 20, and Start's away record has 3 such games. A single low-scoring result is possible, and the 2–2 draw at Lillestrom on 11 October, while over 2.5, showed Molde are not immune to being held to a draw.
Key Points:
- All 10 of the last five matches for both Molde and Start went over 2.5 goals
- Molde's home record: 14 of 20 games over 2.5; Start's away record: 17 of 20 over 2.5
- Molde average 3.2 goals scored per game in their last five; Start average 2.2 conceded per game
- The only recent head-to-head meeting (April 2026) was a 1–1 draw, the sole under-2.5 result in the recent H2H
- Both teams' xG data supports a high-scoring encounter: Molde 2.44 for, 0.97 against; Start 2.4 for, 2.03 against
The evidence points firmly to a high-scoring game. I recommend over 2.5 goals at 1.36.