Monza vs Modena Prediction

Serie B action continues on April 24, 2026, as Monza hosts Modena at the home venue. Mr Certainty’s analysis focuses strictly on the provided data to determine if a bet meets the strict >65% probability threshold.

Monza enters this fixture in strong form, sitting 3rd in the standings with 72 points. Their last 10 games show a 60% win rate, but their home performance is even more impressive. In their last 4 home games, Monza has a 75% win rate (3 wins, 1 draw). Defensively, they are formidable at home, conceding only 0.25 goals per game and keeping a clean sheet in 60% of their last 10 matches. Their goal expectancy at home is 1.90, significantly higher than Modena’s away expectancy of 0.82.

Modena, currently 6th with 52 points, presents a contrasting picture. Their away form is weak, with a 20% win rate in their last 5 away games. They concede 1.80 goals per game on the road, compared to Monza’s 0.25 at home. The goal expectancy data suggests a total of roughly 2.72 goals, but Monza’s defensive stability at home is the key factor.

Head-to-head records show Monza has won the only available meeting 2-1. Given the disparity in home/away performance metrics, Monza is the clear favorite. The odds of 1.83 imply a 54.6% probability. Based on Monza’s 75% home win rate and Modena’s 20% away win rate, the true probability of a Monza win exceeds the 65% threshold required by Mr Certainty.

Key Points:

• Monza Home Win Rate: 75% (Last 4 games)

• Modena Away Win Rate: 20% (Last 5 games)

• Monza Home Goals Conceded: 0.25 per game

• Modena Away Goals Conceded: 1.80 per game

• Goal Expectancy: Monza 1.90, Modena 0.82

Summary: The data supports a Monza victory with high certainty. Recommended bet: Monza to Win.