Morecambe vs Boston United Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this basement battle between two sides who're both struggling to find their feet this season. Morecambe are rock bottom of the National League with just 17 points from 21 games, while Boston United aren't much better off in 18th place with 21 points. This one's got relegation six-pointer written all over it, mate.

Now, when you dig into the recent form, there's a clear difference between these two. Morecambe have picked up a few decent results lately - a 2-0 win over Brackley Town, draws against Yeovil (0-0) and Sutton Utd (2-2), and they only lost 1-0 to Braintree in their last outing. That's not too bad considering their league position. Boston, on the other hand, are in absolute shambles. One win in their last 10 games? That's proper relegation form, that is. They've been shipping goals for fun too - 23 conceded in 10 games works out at 2.3 per game. They've not kept a single clean sheet in their last 10 matches. Not one!

The reverse fixture back in October tells us a lot about this matchup. Morecambe went to Boston and absolutely hammered them 4-0. That shows you exactly what happens when this leaky Boston defense comes up against a side with a bit of attacking intent. Boston have been conceding two or more goals regularly - they let in three against Rochdale, two against Carlisle, and even got beaten by Newcastle's U21 side 3-1 in the cup.

At home, Morecambe have been a bit more solid. They've drawn half of their last four home games and only lost one of them. They're scoring about a goal per game at the Mazuma Stadium, which should be more than enough against this Boston defense. Boston away from home? Well, they're shipping two goals per game on their travels and have only managed one win in five away trips.

The goal expectancy model has this down for about 2.8 goals, which suggests we're in for a few goals. When you look at Boston's defensive record - literally zero clean sheets in 10 games - and the fact they still manage to nick a goal here and there (1.1 per game), the both teams to score market looks mighty appealing.

Both sides need the points, both will likely go for it, and with Boston's defense being about as solid as a chocolate teapot, I reckon we'll see goals at both ends. Morecambe should have enough to score at home, and Boston will probably grab one too, even if they end up losing the match.