MVV vs ADO Den Haag Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper butcher's at this one. We've got a proper tale of two teams here - MVV sitting mid-table in 14th with 15 points, and then you've got ADO Den Haag at the top of the tree, absolutely running away with the league. 34 points from 12 games, mind you! Only one draw all season, the rest wins. That's some proper form, that is.

MVV have been a bit hit and miss lately. In their last 10, they've managed 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses. They've had some decent results like that 2-2 draw with Willem II and a 3-2 win over Vitesse, but they've also had some proper stinkers like losing 4-2 at home to Den Bosch. At home, they're a bit better - winning 60% of their recent home games and scoring 1.8 per game, but they're also letting in 1.6. No clean sheets in their last 5 home matches, which tells you something about their defence, doesn't it?

ADO Den Haag though? They're absolutely flying. 9 wins and 1 draw in their last 10. The only blemish was that 3-3 cup draw with Den Bosch, but they turned around and beat them 2-1 in the league a few days later. They're scoring for fun - 2.9 goals per game! And away from home? Won 5 out of 6 on the road, scoring 2.83 per game. Proper machine, they are.

The head-to-head doesn't make good reading for MVV fans either. ADO have won 5 of the 9 meetings, including a 4-1 thumping last time they met. Most of these games have seen plenty of goals too - 7 out of 9 went over 2.5.

When you look at the stats, it's all one-way traffic. ADO are averaging nearly 21 shots per game compared to MVV's 13. They're also much better at getting them on target (8.6 vs 4.6). Possession-wise, ADO dominate with 61% compared to MVV's 44.6%. All the numbers point one way, don't they?

The odds have ADO as massive favorites at 1.33 for the away win, but I'm looking at the goals market here. MVV are conceding 1.6 goals per game at home, and ADO are scoring 2.83 away from home. That's a recipe for goals, that is. Plus, 60% of both teams' recent games have seen both teams score. The head-to-head suggests goals too - 7 out of 9 went over 2.5.

Key Points:

ADO Den Haag are top of the league with 11 wins from 12 games - absolutely dominant

MVV have kept just 2 clean sheets in 10 games and none in their last 5 at home

ADO are scoring 2.9 goals per game overall and 2.83 away from home

7 of the last 9 head-to-head meetings went over 2.5 goals

• ADO won 4-1 in the last meeting between these sides

Given ADO's relentless attack and MVV's leaky home defence, I'm expecting plenty of goalmouth action. The numbers suggest we should see at least three goals here, and at 1.40, that looks like decent value to me.