NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior Prediction

Right, let's get stuck in. If you're looking for a bit of proper value today, you need to look at the massive gulf in form between these two sides. We've got NEC Nijmegen hosting Excelsior, and on paper, the bookies seem to be falling for a bit of a trap by favoring the home side at 1.40. Let's break down why that doesn't sit right with me.

NEC Nijmegen have been having a proper rough trot lately, especially when they're on their own turf. They've managed a 0.00% win rate in their last six home games—that's right, not a single win. They're struggling to find the net, averaging a meager 0.83 goals per game at home, while their defense is looking a bit leaky, conceding 2.00 goals per game in front of their own fans. They just came off a 1-3 loss to Feyenoord, and while they can put a few past the opposition, they just aren't closing out games.

Now, look at Excelsior. These lads are absolutely flying. They’ve bagged 8 wins in their last 10 outings, which is some serious graft. But here’s the real kicker: they are monsters on the road. They’ve won over 85% of their last seven away fixtures. They aren't just winning; they're putting on a show. They’re averaging a massive 3.14 goals per game when playing away from home. We saw them smash De Graafschap 5-1 and put 4 past Cambuur. They are playing with a lot of confidence and a high-scoring goal environment is exactly what we're seeing.

When you compare an away team scoring over three goals a game to a home team that hasn't won in six tries, the 1.40 odds for a home win look like a joke. The stats tell us that Excelsior are the ones with the momentum. While NEC won the last head-to-head 2-0, that was a while back, and form is king in the Eredivisie. Excelsior's goal expectancy is high, and NEC's home defense is primed for a test they might not be able to handle. We're looking for value, and a 6.50 price on an away side in this kind of form is as good as it gets.

Key Points:

• NEC Nijmegen have won 0% of their last 6 home games.

• Excelsior have won 85.71% of their last 7 away games.

• Excelsior are averaging a huge 3.14 goals per game on the road.

• NEC Nijmegen concede 2.00 goals per game at home.

• Excelsior have secured big wins recently, including a 5-1 and a 4-0.

I'm backing the visitors to take all three points here. The value is too good to ignore.

Recommended Bet: Away Win