NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction

Right, so we've got NEC Nijmegen hosting Fortuna Sittard on 18 October, and if you've been following the Eredivisie, the form difference here is hard to ignore.

Fortuna Sittard have been in the bag. Three wins, a draw and a loss in their last five, and six wins from ten across all competitions. They've scored 18 goals in that stretch and only conceded 17. Away from home over 20 games, they've picked up 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses, averaging 1.35 points per game and scoring 1.45 a match. Their recent away trips include a 2-1 win at Genk and a 1-0 win at Willem II, and they've failed to score in just three of those 20 away games. That's a side that's clicking, mate.

NEC Nijmegen, on the other hand, have been in the doldrums. Three draws and two losses in their last five, including a 5-0 thrashing by Juventus and a 3-0 defeat at Cambuur. They've scored just 3 goals in that stretch and conceded 11. At home over 20 games, they've managed 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses, averaging 1.1 points per game. Their last two home games have both been 1-1 draws — one against Levski Sofia on 15 October, the other against GO Ahead Eagles on 20 September. Not exactly the kind of home form that fills you with confidence.

The head-to-head at this venue within the last 12 months went to Fortuna Sittard, who won 3-2 back in February. The older meetings at this ground are historical record only, but that recent one tells you what to expect when the two meet here.

Now, the counter-argument: NEC's home record does show 7 draws in 20 games, which means they can be stubborn and grind out a point. Fortuna's away record does carry 9 losses in 20 games, and they did lose 1-5 to Ajax at home recently. The market has NEC as favourites at 1.62, implying a 61.73% chance, which suggests the bookies see something in NEC's home setup that the raw form numbers don't fully capture. And that's fair — home advantage is real, and NEC have kept it to draws rather than defeats in their last two home games.

But here's the thing — the form numbers don't lie. Fortuna scored 1.8 per game in their last ten while NEC managed 1.0 per game. Fortuna conceded 1.7 per game in that stretch; NEC conceded 2.3. Fortuna have beaten NEC at this very ground recently. I rate Fortuna's chance of winning at around 26%, which sits comfortably above the market's 19.80% implied probability. That's value, and I'm not afraid to take it.

Key Points:

• Fortuna Sittard: 6W 2D 2L in last 10, 2 points per game; NEC Nijmegen: 1W 4D 5L, 0.7 points per game

• Fortuna's away record: 8W 3D 9L in 20 games, 1.35 ppg; NEC's home record: 5W 7D 8L, 1.1 ppg

• Recent H2H at NEC's ground (28 February 2026): Fortuna Sittard won 3-2

• Fortuna scored 1.8 per game in last 10; NEC scored 1.0 per game

• Market prices NEC win at 1.62 (61.73% implied) but the form tells a different story

My pick: Fortuna Sittard away win at 5.05.