Preview
PajimonRight, so we've got Necaxa hosting Atlas in Liga MX, and if you've been watching these two over the last few weeks, the one thing that jumps out is that the net keeps rattling. Both sides are finding the scoresheet in almost every game they play, and that's the thread I'm pulling on here.
Let's start with the form. Atlas come into this with 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from their last 10 games, scoring 1.5 a game and conceding 1.7. Necaxa, on the other hand, have managed just 1 win, 3 draws and 6 losses in that same stretch, scoring 1.3 a game but leaking 2.2. That's a big gap in recent results, and it tells you Atlas are the side with the momentum. They beat Club Tijuana 3–2 on 26 September, and even in their draws against Pumas and Chivas they've been scoring. In fact, Atlas have scored in all five of their last five matches. Not a single blank sheet, not a single game where they failed to find the net.
Necaxa have scored in four of their last five, and in their last ten they've gone blank in only one game. So both teams are hitting the scoresheet regularly. The head-to-head backs this up: across 22 meetings dating back to 2016, both teams have scored in 12 of those 22. The three most recent meetings within the last 12 months were a 0–0 at Atlas's ground in July, a 0–1 at Necaxa's ground in January, and a 5–3 at Atlas's ground in December. One of those three had both teams on the scoresheet, and the 5–3 was a proper goal-fest.
Now, the counter-argument. Necaxa's home record over 20 games is actually respectable: 8 wins, 3 draws, 9 losses, 1.35 points per game, and they concede just 1.25 a game at home. That's better than Atlas's away record, which sits at 8 wins, 1 draw, 11 losses with 1.75 conceded per game. So there's a case that Necaxa's home form could keep this tight. Also, Atlas's away record has 11 losses in 20 games, which is a lot of defeats. And the head-to-head at this specific venue is just one game — Atlas won 0–1 in January — so it's a small sample. You can't build a whole thesis on one meeting.
But here's the thing: the home and away records for BTTS are roughly 50/50 for both sides (Necaxa home: 10 yes, 10 no; Atlas away: 9 yes, 11 no). Those 20-game spans go back 12 months and include older games that dilute the picture. The last five and last ten games tell a much clearer story. Atlas have scored in 5 of 5 and 9 of 10. Necaxa have scored in 4 of 5 and 9 of 10. The xG numbers back it up too — Necaxa are averaging 1.57 xG for over four recent games, and Atlas 1.28. Both teams are creating enough to find the net.
Key Points:
- Atlas have scored in all 5 of their last 5 games; Necaxa in 4 of 5
- Both teams' last 10 games show BTTS yes in 9/10 and 8/10 respectively
- Atlas won the only recent meeting at Necaxa's ground (0–1, January 2026)
- Necaxa's home record concedes 1.25 per game, but their recent form is poor (0W 2D 3L in last 5)
- The 20-game home/away BTTS splits are roughly 50/50, but the last 5–10 games lean heavily toward both teams scoring
My pick: both teams to score, at 1.62. The recent form is screaming it, and the price is there for the taking. Braai's on, beer's cold, and I'm feeling good about this one. Let's go get it, boys.