Necaxa vs Santos Laguna Prediction

Right then, let's fire up the braai and look at this Liga MX clash between two teams who've been struggling more than a vegetarian at a BBQ! Necaxa sitting 16th with just 13 points, while Santos Laguna aren't much better in 10th with 17 points. Both teams need the points badly, but more importantly for us bettors, both teams seem to love conceding goals!

Necaxa's recent form is shocking - just 2 wins in their last 10 games and they're leaking goals like a sieve. They've conceded 23 goals in those 10 matches (2.3 per game!) and only managed 1 clean sheet. Their last game was a 4-3 win over Atletico San Luis, but even then they couldn't keep it tight at the back. Before that, they were getting hammered 5-3 by Tigres and 3-2 by Atlas. At home, they've been slightly better defensively (0.75 conceded per game), but that's from a tiny sample of 4 games.

Santos Laguna have been marginally better with 4 wins in their last 10, and importantly, they've been more solid defensively with 3 clean sheets. They're scoring and conceding at exactly 1.3 per game, which shows they're involved in tight contests. Recent results include a 3-1 win over Queretaro and a 2-0 victory over Leon. Away from home, they've drawn their last two on the road, scoring in both.

The head-to-head tells us everything we need to know - 7 of the last 9 meetings have gone Over 2.5 goals, and 6 saw both teams score. The last encounter was a 3-2 thriller. With Necaxa's defensive woes and Santos' decent scoring record, this has both teams to score written all over it.

Key Points:

• Necaxa conceding 2.3 goals per game this season

• Santos scoring 1.3 goals per game with 30% clean sheet rate

• 7 of 9 H2H matches went Over 2.5 goals

• 6 of 9 H2H matches saw both teams score

• Necaxa's last 3 games all had 3+ goals

• Santos have scored in 8 of their last 10 games

The odds of 1.53 for both teams to score look solid value here. Necaxa's defense is generous enough to gift Santos a goal, while Santos have shown they can be breached on their travels. Both teams need the points and will likely go for the win rather than sitting back.