Preview
PajimonRight, so we've got New York Red Bulls hosting Toronto FC on 17 October, and there's a line that's been nagging at me.
The case for a low-scoring game starts with Toronto's away record. Over their last 20 away games, they've managed just 2 wins, 8 draws and 10 losses, averaging 0.75 goals per game on the road. That's a team that struggles to find the back of the net when they're not at home. Look at their last three away fixtures: 0–2 at Nashville SC on 27 September, 1–3 at St. Louis City on 20 September, and 0–3 at Orlando City SC on 12 September. Three away games where they failed to score or managed just one goal. That's a pattern worth respecting.
New York Red Bulls at home have a record of 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 home games, scoring 1.6 per game but conceding 1.95. They're not a perfect home side, but they do find the net. More importantly, their last 10 games across all venues have seen 6 of 10 finish under 2.5 goals. Their games tend to be tight.
Now, the counter-argument is real and I won't pretend it isn't. Toronto's last five games have been high-scoring affairs: 3–3 with Orlando City, 2–1 against CF Montreal, and then those three away losses. Four of those five went over 2.5. Their last 10 games have seen 8 of 10 go over. And New York Red Bulls' last five have seen 3 of 5 go over 2.5. So the recent trend across both teams is actually pointing toward goals. That's the case against the under, and it's a fair one.
But here's what I keep coming back to: Toronto's away record is the most relevant part of the form for this specific fixture, and it's pointing firmly to a low-scoring game. 11 of their last 20 away games finished under 2.5. They've failed to score in 8 of those 20. The market is pricing under 2.5 at 2.8, which implies about 36% chance. My read on the football is closer to 43%, which puts me ahead of the bookies' view.
Key Points:
- Toronto's last 20 away games: 11 under 2.5, 0.75 goals scored per game
- Toronto's last 3 away games: 0–2, 1–3, 0–3 (scored 0 or 1 in each)
- New York Red Bulls' last 10 games: 6 under 2.5
- Toronto's recent form (last 5) has been high-scoring, which is the main counter-argument
- Market prices under 2.5 at 2.8; my estimate sits above the implied probability
My verdict: under 2.5 goals.