Preview
Yoda Mc Yoda FaceMay the form be with you, friends. For this one, we must look to the road, not the home ground, to find our wisdom.
Toronto FC travel to New York Red Bulls' ground on 17 October, and the road record tells a tale that even a wise Jedi cannot ignore. Over their last 20 away games, spanning 14 months, Toronto have won just 2, drawn 8, and lost 10. Their scoring away is a mere 0.75 per game, and in their last three trips, they fell 0–2 to Nashville SC, 1–3 to St. Louis City, and 0–3 to Orlando City SC. Three losses, two of them without finding the net. The road is a hard path for Toronto to walk.
New York Red Bulls, meanwhile, sit at home with a record of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses across 20 home games over 12 months. They score 1.6 per game at home, and just seven days ago they dismantled San Diego 4–1 on their own turf. Yet the same ground saw them fall 0–3 to St. Louis City two weeks prior. Inconsistency, yes, but the scoring output at home is there.
The head-to-head is a long story, 35 meetings spanning 13 years, with New York Red Bulls winning 18 of them. But the most recent meeting, back in March at Toronto's ground, ended 1–1. The older meetings at this venue show New York Red Bulls winning 2–1 and drawing 0–0, but those are historical, not current form. We must not mistake the past for the present, young padawan.
Now, the counter-argument, for balance must be sought. Toronto's last 10 games across all venues show 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, with 1.3 points per game — better than New York Red Bulls' 1.1. They score 1.8 per game in that stretch, and 8 of those 10 saw both teams find the net. Their last five games include a 3–3 draw with Orlando City and a 2–1 win over CF Montreal at home. The fire is still there, even if the road record dims it.
But here is where the wisdom lies. Look at the scoring patterns. New York Red Bulls' last 5 games: 3 of 5 saw at least one team fail to score. Their last 10: 6 of 10. Toronto's away record: 9 of 20 saw at least one team score zero. And in their last three away games specifically, two of three were BTTS no — the 0–2 and the 0–3. When you stack those together, the picture of a quiet game, where one side stays blank, becomes clearer than a starry night.
The market prices both teams to score at 1.40, implying a 71.43% chance. My own reading of the road record, the recent away blanks, and New York Red Bulls' tendency to see one side go scoreless puts the chance of at least one team failing to score closer to 40%. That is a meaningful gap from the market's view.
Key Points:
- Toronto's last 20 away games: 2W 8D 10L, scoring 0.75 per game
- Toronto's last 3 away games: 0–2, 1–3, 0–3 — two were BTTS no
- New York Red Bulls' last 5: 3 of 5 were BTTS no; last 10: 6 of 10
- Most recent H2H meeting (March 2026) ended 1–1 at Toronto's ground
- Toronto's last 10 overall: 8 of 10 were BTTS yes, a strong counter
The path is clear, though not without fog. I recommend both teams not to score.