Newells Old Boys vs Platense Prediction

Howzit my bru! Grab a cold one and pull up a chair by the braai, because we've got a proper Liga Profesional scrap coming up between Newells Old Boys and Platense. Now, I love a good underdog story as much as the next oke, but looking at the form guide here, Newells are about as useful as a chocolate teapot right now.

The home side are rooted to the bottom of the table with just 2 points from 8 games – that's zero wins, two draws, and six losses. Their recent results make for grim reading: 0-2 against Rosario Central, 0-2 against Estudiantes, a 3-0 hiding from Banfield, and a 2-3 loss to Defensa Y Justicia where they actually scored but still couldn't get the job done. They've managed just one win in their last ten (a 2-0 against Huracan back in November), and at home they're winless in their last five with a pathetic 0.60 goals per game and a leaky defence conceding 1.80 per match.

Now Platense, on the other hand, are sitting pretty in 5th place with 13 points from their 8 games. These okes know how to grind out results – four wins, four draws, and only one defeat in their last ten. They're tighter than a boerewors casing at the back, with six clean sheets in those ten games and conceding just 0.50 goals per game on average. Their away form is solid too – they beat Talleres Cordoba 2-1 on the road and have only lost once away in their last five.

The head-to-head record does favour Newells at home (75% win rate historically), but that was then and this is now. Current form is king in this game, and Platense are trending upwards while Newells are declining faster than my mate's hairline. The goal expectancies point to a low-scoring affair with Platense edging it, which suits their defensive approach perfectly.

Key Points:

• Newells have lost 7 of their last 10 games, scoring just 7 goals and conceding 17

• Platense have kept 6 clean sheets in their last 10 matches and concede only 0.50 goals per game

• Newells are winless at home in their last 5 (0% win rate) with just 0.60 goals scored per game

• Platense are 5th in the table with 13 points, Newells are 15th with only 2 points

• Platense's away record shows they can grind out results (20% win rate but 60% draw rate, only 0.60 conceded per game)

Summary:

Look, I love a home win as much as anyone – it's lekker when the braai is burning and the home side is winning – but Newells are in genuine crisis mode. Platense at 2.88 represents cracking value for an away win against a side that can't buy a victory. Platense have the defence to shut out this struggling Newells attack, and they've shown they can nick goals on the road. I'm backing the away win here – sometimes you just have to follow the form, and Platense are the much better football side right now.