NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin Prediction

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb host NK Varazdin on 11 October in the HNL, and the form gap between the two sides is hard to ignore.

Varazdin arrive in the strongest shape of the two. Their last five matches have produced two wins and three draws with no defeats, 1.8 points per game, and just two goals conceded across the stretch. The 4–0 cup win over Zagora on 9 September and the 2–0 home victory over Rudes on 29 August show they can score when needed, while the 0–0 draws against Osijek and Istra 1961 at home and the 2–2 draw at Gorica on 14 September underline a side that is comfortable defending. Their xG against over seven recent games sits at 0.73 per game, a figure that speaks to a backline that is genuinely difficult to break down.

Lokomotiva, by contrast, have lost three of their last five. The 0–2 defeat at Hajduk Split on 31 August, the 1–2 loss at Slaven Belupo on 6 September, and the 2–3 defeat at Dinamo Zagreb on 20 September paint a picture of a team that is leaking goals. Their xG against over six recent games is 1.83 per game, compared to 0.73 for Varazdin. At home over 20 games they do hold a solid record — 12 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses, 2.05 points per game — but that established home record is being eroded by the current run of results.

The head-to-head over the last 12 months is fairly even. At Lokomotiva's ground the two sides met on 7 March (1–1) and 27 June (2–1 to Lokomotiva in a friendly); at Varazdin's ground they drew 1–1 on 9 May and Varazdin won 4–2 on 7 December. No side has a clear edge from these four meetings, and the older 1–0 result at Lokomotiva's ground on 20 September 2025 is historical record only.

The counter-argument for Lokomotiva is their home record. Twelve wins in 20 home games, 1.8 goals scored per game, and 1.15 conceded per game over that stretch is a solid foundation. The 1–1 draw with Rijeka on 12 September at home also suggests they can hold their own against top-flight opposition. And the head-to-head at this venue has produced a win and a draw, no losses.

Key Points:

• Varazdin are unbeaten in five (2W 3D), conceding just 2 goals, with an xG against of 0.73 per game

• Lokomotiva have lost 3 of their last 5, conceding 8 goals, with an xG against of 1.83 per game

• The head-to-head over 4 recent meetings is split: 1 home win, 1 away win, 2 draws

• Lokomotiva's 20-game home record (12W 5D 3L) remains a solid foundation

• Varazdin's away record over 20 games: 10W 2D 8L, 1.6 points per game

The football points to NK Varazdin as the stronger side on current form, and the 2.3 price on the away win sits below my estimate of their chances. I'll back the away win.