NK Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. On Sunday, the league leaders Dinamo Zagreb roll into town to face a Slaven Belupo side sitting pretty in third. On the face of it, you'd think this is a banker for the big boys from the capital. But hold your horses, because the form book is telling a very different story.

Belupo are absolutely flying at the moment. Just one loss in their last ten, and that was a 4-1 thumping away to... you guessed it, Dinamo Zagreb back in September. Since then, they've been rock solid. They're unbeaten at home in their last five, winning three and drawing two. They held title rivals Hajduk Split to a 0-0 draw and have been scoring for fun, putting four past Vukovar and three past Varazdin on the road. At home, they're conceding less than a goal a game (0.8 to be precise). They're a tough nut to crack on their own patch.

Now, let's talk about Dinamo. Blimey, they've had a rough time of it lately. Four wins, one draw, and five losses in their last ten. That's not champion form. They've just been turned over 3-1 at home by Real Betis in Europe, drew with Hajduk, and have lost on the road to the likes of Istra 1961 and even bottom-half Vukovar. They're conceding goals left, right, and centre – 1.6 per game on average. Their away record shows they lose 60% of the time recently. They've also only had three days' rest after that European game, while Belupo have been putting their feet up for over a week.

The head-to-head history is all Dinamo – they've won seven of the last nine meetings. But that 4-1 win earlier this season feels like a lifetime ago given how both teams' fortunes have shifted. Dinamo are still top of the pile, but they look vulnerable.

So, what's the bet? The bookies have Dinamo at a skinny 1.57 to win. That's taking the mick given their current state. Belupo are a massive 5.00 to win at home. Now, I'm not saying it's a certainty, but at those odds, there's serious value. Belupo are confident, at home, and facing a tired and leaky Dinamo defence. The goal markets are tight – Over 2.5 and Both Teams to Score are both 1.73, which is about fair. No real edge there for me.

Key Points:

Slaven Belupo are unbeaten in their last five home games (W3, D2).

Dinamo Zagreb have lost five of their last ten matches in all competitions.

Dinamo have lost 60% of their recent away games.

Belupo have had 9 days rest; Dinamo only 3 after a European match.

• The last H2H was a 4-1 Dinamo win, but that was in September during Belupo's only recent loss.

The Simple Verdict:

This has all the makings of a proper upset. The value isn't with the favourites, it's with the in-form home side at a whopping price. I'm having a slice of that 5/1 pie. It's a punt, but sometimes you've got to back the story, and Belupo's story is a lot better than Dinamo's right now.

My Tip: NK Slaven Belupo to Win.