NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka Prediction

There's something special about watching a team like NK Slaven Belupo step onto the pitch with the underdog badge pinned to their chest. You root for them, you hope the big dogs slip up, and you dream of that beautiful upset. And I'll be honest — I went looking for value in this fixture for the little guys.

The case for Slaven Belupo starts at home. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 7, drawn 5 and lost 8, scoring 1.45 per game. They've kept clean sheets in 6 of those 20 and failed to score in just 4. In their last five matches across all venues, they've scored in four of five games and gone over 2.5 goals in four of five. That 5–0 cup demolition of Hrvatski Dragovoljac on 9 September showed they can find the net when the defence opens up. Their xG for sits at 1.1 per game across six recent matches, which is respectable for a team the market prices heavily against.

The head-to-head adds a flicker of hope. In the four meetings within the last 12 months, two of them ended in a draw — 1–1 at Slaven Belupo's ground on 18 October 2025 and 2–2 at Rijeka's ground on 24 January 2026. That's half the recent meetings level, and it suggests this fixture can be tight.

But here's where the underdog's heart gets a little heavier. HNK Rijeka have won both recent meetings — 0–2 at this ground on 4 April and 2–0 at their own ground on 8 April — and their away record over 20 games tells a story of a team that simply doesn't leak. Eight wins, six draws, six losses, conceding just 0.9 per game and keeping 9 clean sheets. Their current run is won their last two with 9 goals and 0 conceded. In the latest 10 comparison, they outscore Slaven Belupo 1.9 to 1.3 per game and concede less (1.3 to 1.8). The xG against for Rijeka is just 1.1 per game across four recent matches, with only 4 actual goals conceded in that span.

The counter-argument for the underdog is real but thin. Slaven Belupo lost their most recent game (1–2 at Olimpija Ljubljana on 1 October) and have lost two of their last five. Their home defence concedes 1.6 per game, and the head-to-head at this ground has produced just one draw and one loss in two meetings. The market's view heavily favours Rijeka, and the numbers back that up.

Key Points:

• HNK Rijeka won both recent meetings — 0–2 at NK Slaven Belupo's ground on 4 April and 2–0 at their own ground on 8 April — and have won their last two matches with 9 goals and 0 conceded.

• Rijeka's away record over 20 games: 8W 6D 6L, 0.9 conceded per game, 9 clean sheets — a defence that rarely cracks.

• NK Slaven Belupo have scored in 4 of their last 5 games and won 7 of 20 home games, but lost their most recent match and concede 1.6 per game at home.

• Two of the four recent head-to-head meetings ended in a draw, but the other two were Rijeka wins — 0–2 at this ground and 2–0 at Rijeka's.

• The latest 10 comparison shows Rijeka outscoring Slaven Belupo 1.9 to 1.3 per game and conceding less (1.3 to 1.8).

I went hunting for a value bet on the underdog side, and the football simply doesn't support it. The available prices on the underdog outcomes don't clear the bar for a recommendation based on the evidence. No Bet.