NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Croatian scrap between NK Slaven Belupo and HNK Rijeka. On paper, it's a bit of a mixed bag, but sometimes that's where the value lies, innit?

Slaven Belupo are sitting pretty in 6th with 12 points, and here's the thing - they're proper decent at home. We're talking 75% win rate in their last four home games, banging in 2 goals per game on their own patch. They've had some decent results too, like that 2-1 win over Osijek and a 2-1 against Istra 1961. Mind you, they did get stuffed 4-1 by Dinamo, but that's Dinamo, isn't it? They're scoring for fun at home but also letting a few in - 1.25 per game at their own gaff.

Rijeka, on the other hand, are having a bit of a mare away from home. Sure, they're only two places below Belupo in the table, but their away form is shocking - conceding 2 goals per game on their travels. They did get a decent 3-1 win over Gorica recently, but then lost 2-3 to Vukovar, who are propping up the table. That's the sort of inconsistency that'll have their fans tearing their hair out.

Now, here's where it gets interesting. The head-to-head is all Rijeka - 6 wins to Belupo's 1 in 9 meetings. They even beat Belupo 2-0 back in August. But form-wise, Belupo are scoring for fun at home, and Rijeka are leaking goals away. Something's got to give, hasn't it?

Looking at the numbers, Belupo have seen both teams score in 70% of their last 10 games, while Rijeka are at 50%. With Belupo averaging 2 goals at home and Rijeka shipping 2 away, you can see where I'm going with this, can't you?

The bookies have got BTTS at 1.83, which seems about right to me. Given both teams' recent form and their respective home/away records, I reckon there's a decent chance both sides will find the net. It's not the most exciting bet in the world, but sometimes the simple ones are the best, aren't they?